Nikita Kucherov’s next contract has already become one of the league’s most intriguing money stories, and the number at the center of it is enormous.
According to Elliotte Friedman in his Saturday Headlines, Kucherov wanted to be in the Kirill Kaprizov range on his next deal in AAV. At the time, Kaprizov was the NHL’s highest-paid player, earning $17MM annually from Minnesota.
Kucherov is in the final season of his current eight-year, $76MM contract, which carries a $9.5MM AAV. AFP Analytics projects his next deal at three years and $12M AAV, but the reported talks have already moved well beyond that figure.
Kevin Weekes reported that Lightning general manager Julien BriseBois initially offered $13MM AAV. That was before Philadelphia’s Leo Carlsson offer sheet changed the landscape with a five-year, $90MM deal at $18MM AAV, and before Cale Makar’s $20.4MM AAV pushed Tampa to revise its offer to $15MM AAV.
The market has been shifting fast, especially for younger stars. Carlsson’s deal joined a run of big-money contracts for players such as Macklin Celebrini, Connor Bedard, Cutter Gauthier, and others who have been paid on the strength of their upside and early NHL impact. Kucherov’s case is different, but the logic is the same: a player with his résumé is going to want to be paid like it.
And Kucherov’s résumé is massive. He is a two-time Stanley Cup champion, a two-time Hart Trophy winner, a seven-time All-Star, a three-time Art Ross winner, a two-time Ted Lindsay winner, and a player who can score 100 points at will. He recently became the franchise’s all-time points leader, passing Steven Stamkos.
That backdrop helps explain why Kucherov reportedly requested a trade from the only club he’s ever known. Tampa, though, appears to be drawing a line.
The thinking seems tied to age and cap management. Kucherov is 33, and the Lightning seem wary of continuing to pay him at a level that assumes he’ll keep producing at the same rate.
The cap math tells the story. When his current deal began in 2019-20, it represented 11.6% of the salary cap.
That has since dropped to around 9%. A $15MM AAV would have taken up 13.2% of Tampa’s payroll, while $20MM would have climbed to 17.6%.
This is not unfamiliar territory for the Lightning. As Brennan McClain pointed out, the team has walked away from aging stars before.
In 2008, after a salary crunch, Tampa traded Brad Richards following Vincent Lecavalier’s 11-year contract, which was later bought out in 2013. A few months later, Martin St.
Louis asked out and was eventually sent to the New York Rangers. More recently, after lowballing Stamkos, he left for the Nashville Predators as an unrestricted free agent.
Even with that history, Tampa has said it is not willing to trade Kucherov. Still, it’s hard to see this ending cleanly unless the Lightning meet his number.
The list of teams with the room to chase him is not long. Only seven clubs have less than what Kucherov would ideally want on the open market: the Devils, Ducks, Knights, Avalanche, Capitals, Panthers, and Leafs are all under $20MM in cap space for 2027-28.
Friedman said Toronto and Montreal are among the teams Kucherov would consider, though the financial picture is very different for each. Toronto has $2.4MM in 2027-28, while Montreal has $29.7MM.
Tampa itself sits at $29.8MM in cap space, so the money is there if it chooses to go all in. The problem is what that means for the rest of the roster. Paying Kucherov at that level would make it harder to fill out the depth around him, and if the Lightning decide to move him instead, they would need a return that makes sense for a team still trying to win now.
For a player with Kucherov’s production and Tampa’s current window, that is the real dilemma. The league may come calling, but the Lightning still have to decide what kind of package would actually justify letting one of the greatest wingers of his generation walk out the door.
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