The Lightning walk into T-Mobile Arena tonight with a real challenge in front of them, and the Golden Knights aren’t hiding what kind of problem they present. Vegas has piled up 24 goals, the most in the league, and owns the best goal differential at +18. At home, the Knights are 5-1, with the lone loss coming on opening night against the Anaheim Ducks.
Still, the numbers suggest this won’t be a one-way fight. Vegas has been dangerous offensively, but the underlying profile is a little less intimidating than the raw scoring totals.
The Golden Knights rank sixth in shots for per 60 at 29.88, but they’re 17th in shots against per 60 at 25.1 and 17th in scoring chances for per 60 at 27.49. They’re also 23rd in scoring chances against per 60 at 27.69.
Their goals for per 60 sits at 2.79, while goals against per 60 is 1.99.
The star power is obvious. Jack Eichel has 18 points, Mark Stone has 14, and Mitch Marner has 11, with all three sitting above a point per game.
Vegas is also getting production from elsewhere, with Tomas Hertl, Victor Olofsson, Brett Howden, and Trevor Connelly all sitting on four goals apiece. Olofsson is currently injured.
For Tampa Bay, this trip to Vegas has been a strange one over time. The Lightning have alternated losses and wins in their last eight visits to T-Mobile Arena. If that pattern holds, a loss would be next, though Tampa Bay did beat Vegas 6-3 there last November.
The recipe for the Lightning is familiar: take care of the puck, dictate the tempo, and keep Vegas from settling into its game. That means forechecking hard, slowing the Golden Knights through the neutral zone, and getting pucks on net.
When Tampa Bay has been at its best this season, it has done a good job of keeping opponents from spending long stretches in its zone. That has to happen again tonight.
If Vegas starts cycling and forces the Lightning into extended chasing, the night can get long fast.
Jon Cooper may lean heavily on the Anthony Cirelli and Zemgus Girgensons lines to handle a lot of the heavy lifting. The Girgensons trio of Zemgus Girgensons, Ilya Mikheyev, and Pontus Holmberg has logged more than 72 minutes together at 5-on-5 and been on the ice for just one goal against.
Evolving Hockey has them at 2.13 xGA, so there’s probably some good fortune in there too, but they’ve still been difficult to play against. The Cirelli line, recently reunited with Nikita Kucherov, has produced a 0.86 xGA in limited minutes.
Those units aren’t just doing the defensive work either. Girgensons, Mikheyev, and Holmberg have been on the ice for five Lightning goals, while Cirelli, Brandon Hagel, and Kucherov have posted 2.20 expected goals for in just 27 minutes together. If those groups hold up, it gives Tampa Bay’s other lines room to breathe.
The Lightning also found some life on the power play in their last game, with Kucherov scoring his second goal of the season. At Monday’s practice, the team tried out a few different looks.
Charle-Edouard D’Astous worked at the point with Brayden Point in the left circle, Hagel in the bumper, Kucherov in his usual spot, and Jake Guentzel down low. Reporters also saw a setup with John Carlson in the left circle, Kucherov at the quarterback spot, Point back in the slot, Guentzel in the right circle, and Hagel down low.
Whether that exact group shows up tonight is another question, but Tampa Bay is at least presenting something new for Vegas to sort through. The Lightning are still clicking at just 10% on the power play, and the Golden Knights’ penalty kill sits at 73.9%, so this could be a place where Tampa Bay finds an edge if it can finish.
This has the feel of a hard, tight game between two teams with Stanley Cup aspirations. The Lightning may be getting tested in a major way, but the home team isn’t stepping into anything easy either. Vegas will need to be sharp to keep Tampa Bay from walking in and taking points.
The schedule doesn’t let up after this. The Lightning go from Vegas to Colorado on Friday, then face Utah the next night. That means three games against some of the best teams in the west, and it wouldn’t be shocking if Tampa Bay plays well and still comes away with only one win on the trip.
Lightning projected lineup:
Jake Guentzel - Brayden Point - Gage Goncalves
Brandon Hagel - Anthony Cirelli - Nikita Kucherov
Pontus Holmberg - Zemgus Girgensons - Ilya Mikheyev
Dominic James - Conor Geekie - Jeff Viel
J.J. Moser - John Carlson
Ryan McDonagh - Erik Cernak
Victor Hedman - Charle-Edouard D’Astous
Vegas projected lineup:
Ivan Barbashev - Jack Eichel - Mark Stone
Brett Howden - William Karlsson - Mitch Marner
Trevor Connelly - Tomas Hertl - Raphael Lavoie
Braeden Bowman - Nic Dowd - Marc Gatcomb
Brayden McNabb - Shea Theodore
Jeremy Lauzon - Rasmus Andersson
Noah Hanifin - Dylan Coghlan
In Other News...
Lightning Fans Just Got A Dylan Larkin Trade What-If
A fresh layer of intrigue has been added to the Dylan Larkin buzz, and Tampa Bay is now part of the conversation. According to a report from The Athletic, the Detroit Red Wings center has broadened the list of NHL teams he would consider, putting the Lightning in the mix as a possible landing spot if the situation ever moved from speculation to something more concrete.
For a Tampa Bay team that is always looking to stay in the contender lane, the fit is easy to imagine on paper. Larkin would bring another high-end center option into the picture, but any real pursuit would come with the usual complications of a player with his stature and market value, leaving plenty of questions about how realistic a move like this could actually be. [Read more 🡒]
Lightning Suddenly Have A Cirelli Problem They Cant Ignore
Anthony Cirellis night ended early against Vegas, and Tampa Bay immediately felt the ripple effect. He left after the second period in the win over the Golden Knights, though it was not clear when the injury happened, and his absence forced the Lightning to shuffle their forward group and lean more heavily on other centers for ice time.
For a team that has tried to keep its lines balanced, losing Cirelli even temporarily creates an obvious wrinkle. Tampa Bay may have to look internally for help, with Dominic James or Scott Sabourin among the forwards the club could activate to cover the opening while it waits for more clarity on Cirellis status. [Read more 🡒]
Kucherov Hit A Huge Lightning Milestone In Statement Win Over Vegas
Nikita Kucherov kept adding to his place in Lightning history on a night Tampa Bay needed a statement. He scored a goal and finished with three points as the Lightning took down the Vegas Golden Knights, giving the veteran winger another signature performance in a game with real weight for the team.
The bigger picture for Tampa Bay is what Kucherovs night meant in the record book, even if the milestone itself was only part of the story. Andrei Vasilevskiy also turned in a strong outing in net to backstop the win, giving the Lightning a performance that checked every box and left the franchise marker hanging over the night. [Read more 🡒]