Bucs Face Familiar Odds, Unfamiliar Questions Heading Into 2026
Super Bowl 60 is in the books, and the Seattle Seahawks are walking off into the offseason as champions after a commanding 29-13 win over the New England Patriots at Levi’s Stadium. For Tampa Bay fans, it was a game laced with familiarity.
The Bucs had faced both teams during the regular season-and even walked into Seattle and handed the champs a loss on their home turf. But as the confetti settles, all eyes in Tampa now turn to what’s ahead.
And what’s ahead, at least according to the oddsmakers, looks a lot like what we saw last year.
Same Odds, Different Vibe
Tampa Bay enters the 2026 offseason with +4,000 odds to win Super Bowl 61-identical to where they stood a year ago at this time. But while the payout hasn’t changed, the context absolutely has.
DraftKings currently gives the Bucs the 18th-best odds in the league, while Hard Rock Bet slots them into a tie for 17th alongside the Cowboys. That’s a slight dip from last offseason, when Tampa Bay had the 15th-best odds.
So even though the number is the same, the league’s belief in the Bucs has slipped a bit. And it’s not hard to see why.
Last year’s team didn’t build on the offensive momentum from 2024. Instead, it sputtered. Todd Bowles’ defense struggled for the second straight season, and the offense never quite found its rhythm-despite a roster that still boasts plenty of talent.
New Faces, Familiar Pressure
Tampa Bay is hoping a new voice can unlock a different result. Enter Zac Robinson, the newly hired offensive coordinator tasked with getting more out of Baker Mayfield and a young, dynamic group of playmakers that includes Bucky Irving, Chris Godwin Jr., Jalen McMillan, and Emeka Egbuka. The pieces are there for improvement, but it’s going to take more than just scheme tweaks to get this unit firing again.
One major question mark? Mike Evans. The future Hall of Famer isn’t guaranteed to return, and his absence would leave a massive hole in the offense-not just in production, but in leadership.
And then there’s the defense. Tampa Bay hasn’t yet revealed its hand when it comes to fixing that side of the ball, whether through free agency, the draft, or a potential trade. But with Bowles firmly on the hot seat, the pressure is on to find answers-and fast.
A Division in Flux
If there’s one silver lining for the Bucs, it’s the state of the NFC South. Despite finishing in a three-way tie at 8-9 with the Falcons and Panthers, Tampa Bay enters the offseason with the best Super Bowl odds in the division. They’re well ahead of Carolina and Atlanta, both sitting at +7,500, and even further ahead of the Saints at +10,000.
That’s a bit surprising, especially considering the Panthers won the division. But the oddsmakers seem to believe more in a potential Bucs turnaround than in Carolina or Atlanta sustaining their momentum. Whether that belief is well-placed remains to be seen.
Bet Now, Believe Later?
If you’re a believer in Tampa Bay’s potential, now might be the time to get in. Odds like these tend to shift quickly with offseason moves. A splash signing in free agency or a blockbuster trade-say, for a defensive difference-maker like Maxx Crosby-could push the Bucs up the board and shrink that payout window.
But until those moves happen, the skepticism remains. The Bucs are stuck in a strange middle ground: not quite rebuilding, not quite contending.
The odds reflect that uncertainty. And while fans would love nothing more than a third Super Bowl banner, the road back to the top looks as murky as it’s been in years.
Still, in a wide-open division and with some intriguing young talent on the roster, Tampa Bay isn’t out of the conversation. But if they’re going to make noise in 2026, they’ll need more than just hope and potential. They’ll need answers-on both sides of the ball-and they’ll need them fast.