The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offensive reset has already started to take shape, and one stat points to a clear theme under new coordinator Zac Robinson: this group should be more willing to keep throwing.
Tampa Bay moved on from Josh Grizzard after a rough 2025 season, then turned to Robinson, the former Falcons offensive coordinator and a member of the Sean McVay coaching tree. Robinson spent 2019-23 with the Rams, where he overlapped with former Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen and worked as quarterbacks coach and pass game coordinator during Baker Mayfield’s time in Los Angeles.
There’s still plenty to learn about how the offense will look once the pads come on, but Robinson’s tendencies in Atlanta already offer a strong hint. A chart from Ryan Paganetti, a Super Bowl-winning NFL strategy and analytics coach who has worked with the Eagles, Jaguars, and Raiders, highlighted how play callers respond after a first-down incompletion. Paganetti called it “The NFL’s most common overcorrection: Running on 2nd and 10 after a 1st down incompletion,” and noted that since 2022, passes in that spot have produced better results than runs by +16.6 percentage points in success rate, +0.23 EPA/play, and +6.5 percentage points in eventual series success rate.
Robinson didn’t just lean into that idea - he embraced it. Last season in Atlanta, he called a pass on 82.9% of second-and-10 plays after a first-down incompletion. Only four play callers leaguewide were above 70% in that category, which put Robinson among the NFL’s most aggressive minds in that situation by a comfortable margin.
That stands out even more because the Falcons had Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in the backfield, giving their coordinator plenty of reason to lean on the run if he wanted to. Instead, he kept giving the passing game another shot.
For Tampa Bay, that should be encouraging. The Buccaneers have a deeper receiver room than Atlanta did, and Baker Mayfield is a better quarterback than the ones Robinson was working with last season, Michael Penix Jr. and Kirk Cousins. If Robinson was comfortable sticking with that approach in Atlanta, there’s little reason to think he’ll back away from it in Tampa Bay.
And for fans who have watched too many second-and-10 runs turn into third-and-long passing downs, that’s the kind of change that can feel like a breath of fresh air.
In Other News...
Buccaneers Suddenly Face Real Pressure With Two Core Stars
The Buccaneers have a pair of contract situations that are starting to carry more weight as training camp approaches, with Adam Schefter reporting updates on both Baker Mayfield and Vita Vea. Mayfield and the team have held talks, but the quarterback previously said those discussions were not close, and his stance has been clear that he does not want to keep negotiating once camp begins unless a deal is done before then.
Veas situation is just as important for Tampa Bays long-term planning. He is entering the final year of his four-year, $71 million contract and is looking for an extension, even as his value around the league remains obvious. The Buccaneers would prefer to keep one of their defensive anchors in place, but with no agreement yet, the pressure is building on a front office that suddenly has to navigate two core players at once. [Read more 🡒]
Bucs Enter 2026 With One Huge Question Hanging Over Everything
After a disappointing 2025 season, the Buccaneers head into 2026 with more uncertainty than they have had in years, and it starts at the top. Baker Mayfield remains the central figure in the offense, Todd Bowles is trying to steady a team that did not meet expectations, and the front office has to balance short-term competitiveness with the possibility that the roster may be approaching a turning point.
Bowles future will be one of the leagues more closely watched coaching situations if Tampa Bay stumbles again, while the defense still has to prove it can hold up even after offseason additions. If the Bucs cannot get back on track, the conversation may shift quickly from retooling to something much bigger, with the possibility of a broader reset waiting just beyond 2026. [Read more 🡒]