The NFC South has been a moving target for years, but Tampa Bay still has a clear path back to the top if the pieces stay in place.
The Buccaneers and Saints have been the division’s class, with both teams controlling the NFC South for eight straight years. New Orleans owned the stretch from 2017 through 2020, piling up perennial 11-win seasons, before Tampa Bay took over in 2021 with Tom Brady and held the crown through 2025.
Last season, the Bucs were rolling at 6-2 and looked like they were on track for a fifth straight division title. Then the injuries hit hard.
Mike Evans went down at wide receiver, Bucky Irving was lost in the backfield, and Calijah Kancey was sidelined along the defensive line. The collapse that followed was brutal: Tampa Bay finished 2-7, and the division slipped away.
The NFC South ultimately came down to a tiebreaker, with the Panthers winning it because they had the better record against division opponents. Carolina also swept the Falcons, which helped decide the race.
Now Tampa Bay is trying to reset with a healthier roster and a new offensive coordinator in Zac Robinson. The hope is that Robinson’s spread offense can get Baker Mayfield back to the kind of production he showed in 2024, when he posted 4,500 yards and 45 touchdowns. Mayfield didn’t match that level last year, though he still finished with 3,693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
Even with the dip, the Buccaneers see him as the engine of the offense. If Robinson’s system clicks, Tampa Bay believes Mayfield can get back to being a 4,000-yard passer and make the unit far more explosive.
The division itself also looks open enough for the Bucs to pounce. The Falcons are sorting out a starting quarterback battle between 2024 first-round pick Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa.
The Saints are rebuilding and haven’t had a winning season since 2023. Carolina could still be a tough out after adding linebacker Devin Lloyd and edge rusher Jaelen Phillips.
So the formula for Tampa Bay is simple: stay healthy, and the talent should be enough. If that happens, the Buccaneers have a real shot at their fifth division title in six years and a return to the top of the NFC South.
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