The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are staring at an early-season crossroads in Week 3, and the setup is as uncomfortable as it gets: Baker Mayfield’s team is 0-2, the offense has looked ordinary, and now the Bucs are home underdogs against a Minnesota Vikings team that hasn’t lost since last season.
Minnesota arrives in Tampa Bay at 2-0 with two division wins already in the bank, knocking off Green Bay and Chicago to get itself in position to make the playoffs in 2026. The Vikings have also stacked seven straight wins dating back to last year, though they’ve done it while cycling through quarterbacks. Now Kyler Murray is back after a concussion kept him out for most of Week 1 and all of Week 2, and the question is whether he can finally give Kevin O’Connell’s offense some stability.
The betting market has nudged toward Tampa Bay a bit since the open. Minnesota initially came in as a 2.5-point favorite, but the Vikings are now laying just 1.5 on the road after movement toward the Bucs. That’s still a jarring spot for Tampa Bay, which entered the season favored to win the NFC South and is now trying to avoid a 0-3 hole.
SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan is looking at this game through an under lens. In his Road to 272 column, he made the case for a lower-scoring matchup, pointing to concerns on both offenses and a Minnesota defense that has already made life miserable for opponents.
“I have some major concerns about the Buccaneers' offense. Their underlying metrics are completely average, despite playing two bad defenses to begin the season.
Baker Mayfield has also looked like a shell of himself, missing key throws in big moments. Now, he has to play against a stifling Brian Flores-led Vikings defense that is going to blitz him the entire game.
I can't imagine Mayfield facing a Vikings blitz is going to go well for Tampa Bay.
On the other sideline, I also have little faith in the Vikings' offense. Even with Kyler Murray back in the lineup, they have ranked just 30th in success rate through the first two weeks.
With this game involving one elite defense and two middling offenses, I think we're going to see a low-scoring affair.”
The Vikings backed up that defensive reputation in Week 2 by holding Chicago to three points in bad weather, and Brian Flores’ unit enters this matchup ranked seventh in EPA/Play and fourth in success rate. That’s a tough assignment for a Tampa Bay team that has already been turnover prone in 2026 and couldn’t get past Cleveland in Week 2.
MacMillan still sees a path for the home team, though. He’s willing to buy low on the Buccaneers because Minnesota benefited from the weather last week, Tampa Bay is fighting for its season, and the Vikings’ offense still hasn’t fully clicked - even with Murray back.
“I think Tampa Bay grabs a win in an ugly matchup in Week 3.”
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
In Other News...
Buccaneers Fans Have A Week 3 TV Map Problem To Watch
Week 3s TV map is one of those Sundays that can make Buccaneers fans do a little channel surfing before kickoff. The NFLs broadcast slate is spread across CBS and FOX with different early and late windows, and the leagues regional assignments mean what shows up on the screen can depend as much on where you are watching as on who you are hoping to follow. Add in the international matchup between Baltimore and Dallas in Rio de Janeiro, and the day has the kind of odd setup that can leave viewers checking listings more than once.
For Tampa Bay fans, the wrinkle is in the regional coverage, where market shifts can change which game is easiest to find and which one gets bumped to the background. CBS has the bulk of the early and late action, while FOX carries a single window, and each network has its own set of broadcast teams attached to the games. It is the sort of Sunday that rewards a quick look at the map before settling in, especially for anyone trying to keep tabs on more than one NFC storyline. [Read more 🡒]
Buccaneers May Have Found A Defensive Difference-Maker Faster Than Expected
Josiah Trotter has wasted little time turning himself into one of the early stories of Tampa Bays season. The rookie linebacker has piled up 24 total tackles through the first two weeks, putting him among the league leaders right away, and hes already made an impression far beyond simple production. His debut was memorable enough on its own, and the Buccaneers have reason to feel encouraged by how quickly he has fit into the defense.
Trotters opening act has been strong enough to keep him in the weekly awards conversation, with Pepsi NFL Rookie of the Week nominations in both of the seasons first two weeks. He has also drawn positive grades from PFF, a sign that the impact is showing up on the tape as well as the stat sheet. For a Tampa Bay defense looking for reliable difference-makers, the bigger question now is whether the rookies rapid rise is just the start of something even more disruptive. [Read more 🡒]
Buccaneers Need One Offensive Change Fast To Avoid An 0-3 Hole
The Buccaneers have already put themselves in an early-season bind by starting 0-2 for the first time since 2014, and now the schedule quickly turns into a test of whether they can stop the slide. Minnesota is next, which makes the timing especially tricky for a Tampa Bay offense that has not yet found the kind of balance it needs to settle in and control games.
The biggest issue remains the ground attack, where the Bucs need a meaningful step forward to help offset what the Vikings do well on defense and take some pressure off the rest of the offense. Tampa Bays passing game has shown enough to keep the conversation alive, but without a more dependable run game, this matchup has the feel of one that could push the team into a much deeper early hole. [Read more 🡒]