The first NFL coaching change of 2026 may be closer than it looks, and the names drawing the most heat are Todd Bowles and Jim Harbaugh.
That’s the sense from a CBS Sports roundtable of five writers who looked at the league’s most fragile situations as September gives way to October. History has a way of nudging these things along: the first coaching firing of the 2025 season came on Oct. 13, and the year before that it happened on Oct.
- So with the calendar turning, someone is likely to be shown the door in the coming weeks.
A couple of coaches who looked vulnerable earlier have at least bought themselves some time. Aaron Glenn and Shane Steichen each have a win, and both teams have been competitive even in defeat. They still have plenty to prove, but they no longer look like the most obvious first casualty.
The spotlight has shifted elsewhere, and Tampa Bay is right in the middle of it.
Todd Bowles was already sitting on what one writer called arguably the hottest seat in the NFL entering the season, and the early results haven’t helped him cool it off. The Buccaneers finished 8-9 last year, missed the playoffs, and then Bowles replaced most of his staff - the kind of move that often signals a coach is on his last line of defense.
It hasn’t changed the vibe in Tampa. The Bucs are 0-3, all three losses have come by one score, and the whole operation feels stuck.
Baker Mayfield is dealing with a thumb injury, which only adds to the concern.
Week 5 could be a major pressure point. Tampa Bay travels to Dallas to face the Cowboys on “Thursday Night Football,” and if the Bucs fall to 0-5, that mini-bye after a Thursday night game could create the kind of opening where a change gets made. One writer specifically pointed to that spot, especially if the primetime loss is lopsided.
Zach Pereles also landed on Bowles, calling him “a firing waiting to happen.” He noted that Mayfield was already struggling before the injury and said the offense and overall system have regressed under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson.
Bowles has survived one coordinator swing before, including hiring and firing Josh Grizzard within a year last season, but doing it two years in a row without any postseason success is a much tougher sell. The defense has been solid, which helps Bowles’ case, but the next stretch will test whether that holds up against better competition.
The other coach drawing repeated attention was Harbaugh in Los Angeles.
Bryan DeArdo picked Jim Harbaugh, and the case is simple enough: the Chargers were supposed to be a team built to finally win the franchise’s first playoff game since the Philip Rivers era, but instead they are 0-3. The offense has been so rough that it was described as looking like it came straight from “The Longest Yard.” Justin Herbert has regressed, and the fit between Mike McDaniel and Jim Harbaugh was called an odd couple.
The schedule only makes things more uncomfortable. The Chargers’ next four games are against the Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs and Rams. DeArdo said Harbaugh could even be fired during the Week 7 bye if the situation doesn’t improve, and raised the possibility that McDaniel could become interim coach.
Shanna McCarriston also chose Harbaugh, pointing to the Chargers’ latest loss, a 24-16 defeat to the Bills. Even though Los Angeles forced five turnovers and sacked Josh Allen four times, it still came up empty. That’s part of the frustration with this team: the ceiling keeps getting talked about, but it never seems to be reached.
The numbers back up the concern. The Chargers are sixth-worst in completion percentage at 59.1, tied for third-fewest passing touchdowns with three, and tied for second in interceptions with four.
Harbaugh has been in charge since 2024, and in two seasons the Chargers still haven’t gotten past the wild card round, even with the talent to do more. McCarriston said if this keeps up, Harbaugh will be looking for a new coaching job for 2027, and the early schedule could put them at 1-6 or worse.
The Packers are also in the mix, even if Matt LaFleur’s situation is more complicated than the others. Carter Bahns pointed to Green Bay after a rough start that included an overtime win over the Jets and a Week 3 loss to the previously winless Falcons. The offense has been a mess, the defense has regressed, and the road back to the playoffs looks difficult with three other legitimate NFC North contenders in the picture.
LaFleur’s job security is cushioned by the fact that the Packers gave him a multi-year extension in the offseason, meaning any move now would come with a big financial hit for team president Ed Policy. But Bahns argued that the current form doesn’t offer much reason for confidence.
He noted that LaFleur is the longest-tenured active coach without a Super Bowl appearance and has just one postseason win without Aaron Rodgers. He also pointed out that the last time Green Bay made a coaching change, it was an in-season firing of Mike McCarthy.
If this slide continues, LaFleur could wind up in a similar spot.
In Other News...
Vikings Win May Have Changed The Buccaneers Season Fast
Baker Mayfields thumb injury has put the Buccaneers in an early-season spot they hoped to avoid after a Week 3 matchup with the Vikings that now carries more weight than the final score. Mayfield suffered a dislocated thumb and is expected to miss at least three weeks, leaving Tampa Bay to move ahead without its starting quarterback while the offense adjusts on the fly.
Rookie backup Jalon Daniels finished the game after Mayfield went down and now steps into the spotlight as the fill-in. Todd Bowles and Bruce Arians have both weighed in publicly on the injury and on Mayfields playing style, adding another layer to a situation that could quickly shape how the Buccaneers navigate the next stretch of the season. [Read more 🡒]
Buccaneers Offense Just Took Another Hit They Couldnt Afford
The Buccaneers offense has already been stretched thin by Baker Mayfields thumb injury, and now it has taken another hit with wide receiver Jalen McMillan expected to miss 6-8 weeks after an MRI revealed a sprained PCL. Tampa Bay has been trying to keep its attack afloat without its starting quarterback, and losing another key pass catcher only adds to the pressure on a unit that has had to absorb one setback after another.
McMillans injury is a frustrating one for both the team and the player, especially with his early career already marked by missed time. For a Buccaneers offense trying to stay steady while Mayfield is out for at least three weeks, the timing could hardly be worse, and it leaves even more uncertainty around how the group will hold up in the coming stretch. [Read more 🡒]
Bucs Make Necessary Roster Move To Avoid A Safety Depth Squeeze
The Buccaneers made a practical early-season move at safety by signing Ifeatu Melifonwu to a one-year contract after using him on the practice squad and elevating him for the first three games. With the NFL limiting how many times a player can be elevated from the practice squad, Tampa Bay had to get Melifonwu onto the active roster if it wanted to keep him in the mix.
A roster spot cleared up with wide receiver Jalen McMillan likely headed to injured reserve, giving the Bucs the flexibility to make the switch without creating another squeeze elsewhere. For a team trying to manage its depth carefully in the opening stretch, keeping Melifonwu around became the priority, and the timing of McMillans status made the move possible. [Read more 🡒]