Todd Bowles has quickly become the name at the center of the NFL’s first-coach-fired conversation, and the betting markets are reflecting exactly how ugly things have gotten in Tampa Bay.
BetOnline lists the Buccaneers head coach as the clear favorite to be the first NFL coach let go this season at -140. Right behind him is Houston Texans coach DeMeco Ryans at +150. That pairing makes sense on paper: both teams are still searching for their first win almost a quarter of the way into the season, and both entered the year with expectations that have gone nowhere fast.
For the Buccaneers, the frustration goes well beyond the standings. The start to the 2026 season has gone off the rails across the board, with players, position groups, coaches and even the front office drawing heat. In Tampa, plenty of the anger has landed on Bowles, and fans have been loud about wanting him out.
But fan frustration doesn’t make the decision. That call belongs to general manager Jason Licht and the Glazers, and the ownership history matters here.
Bowles’ track record in Tampa Bay has only made the noise louder. Since taking over in 2022, he has gone 35-37 in the regular season and 1-3 in the postseason. The source of the criticism is easy to see: his aggressive defensive style once gave the Buccaneers an edge, but over time he has not adjusted enough to the league’s shifting trends or to the personnel he has on hand.
The game-management issues have only added fuel to the fire. Bowles has been criticized for poor timeout usage and overly cautious decisions in key moments, and the results have been brutal lately. Since last season, the Buccaneers have lost 11 of their last 13 regular-season games, the worst mark in the NFL over that stretch.
Still, anyone looking at Bowles as a betting play should be careful. The Glazers have never fired a head coach during the season since buying the team in 1995, even through rough stretches for Lovie Smith, Greg Schiano and Raheem Morris. That history runs straight against the idea of an in-season move.
So while Bowles’ status looks shaky and a firing would not be shocking on the football side, it would still be a surprise if Tampa Bay actually made that move before the season ends.
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