Everything the Buccaneers have built in recent seasons points back to what happens this fall, because 2026 could end up deciding whether this core stays together or the whole thing gets reset.
On paper, Tampa Bay still looks like the strongest roster in the NFC South. That’s why another missed postseason would sting, and why even a playoff berth would feel incomplete if it ends in yet another first-round exit. The other path is a full teardown, and nobody around the Bucs wants to go back there.
CBS Sports’ Tyler Sullivan recently laid out the best- and worst-case outcomes for every NFL team, and the Bucs’ range is wide enough to shape the franchise for years.
In Sullivan’s best-case view, Tampa Bay shakes off the 8-9 season that ended its five-year playoff run and four straight division titles, then gets right back to work. Even with Mike Evans gone, the passing game stays dangerous with Baker Mayfield leading the way, and Emeka Egbuka makes “a Year 2 leap for the ages.”
Sullivan has Egbuka becoming the offense’s new top target, while rookie pass rusher Rueben Bain Jr. and rookie linebacker Josiah Trotter help point the defense toward a new era. In that scenario, the Bucs win the NFC South and return to the playoffs.
Pewter Report has already dug into what underachieving, achieving and overachieving could look like for Tampa Bay in 2026, and none of Sullivan’s projections feel outlandish. The offense has a real boost with new coordinator Zac Robinson, whose familiarity with Mayfield and history of getting the most out of playmakers in Atlanta should matter.
The young core also gives the team a lot to work with. Egbuka is in position for a full season of high-end production after his electric first half last year, and Bain and Trotter both project as starters at spots where the defense has needed help.
If those pieces and others take the next step, Tampa Bay’s ceiling climbs even higher than Sullivan’s best-case outline. Meeting expectations would mean 10 wins and a playoff spot, but the best version of this season would be going past that mark and winning a postseason game. Even then, the Bucs would still have work to do before they can catch the NFC’s top teams, including the Rams, 49ers, Packers and Seahawks.
The danger is obvious, too. Tampa Bay’s late-season collapse from November through January was ugly, and the 2-6 finish came with a string of losses that were very winnable. That stretch pushed Todd Bowles into the offseason under more pressure than ever, and it forced him to make staff changes on both sides of the ball, including firing several long-tenured defensive coaches and offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard.
Sullivan’s worst-case scenario starts with more of the same. If Mayfield’s late-season slide continues - he had 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions over his final 11 games in 2025 - and the young players the Bucs are counting on aren’t ready yet, the division can tilt against them fast.
Atlanta and New Orleans both have paths to surprise, and Carolina already showed last season how quickly the standings can flip by winning the division with an 8-9 record. Dave Canales’ team has added pieces, and the Saints now have an offense loaded with weapons after the 2026 NFL Draft.
If the Bucs stumble again, Sullivan says Bowles’ job would be firmly at risk. That kind of season could also make Mayfield’s contract situation more complicated, with a franchise tag for 2027 becoming a real possibility.
Mayfield was not at 100% in the second half of last year, as the trailer for Netflix’s Quarterback season three alluded to, and the injuries seemed to drain the “Mayfield Magic” from the offense. Another season like that would raise even more questions about Tampa Bay’s future.
There’s still time for the Bucs to turn this into something better. But there’s also no hiding from the stakes. If 2025 was the wake-up call, 2026 is the season that could decide what comes next.
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Bucs Rookie Just Drew A Comparison No Linebacker Can Ignore
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Josiah Trotter, the son of former Eagles linebacker Jeremiah Trotter, is drawing plenty of attention for what he might become in the NFL. Former Buccaneers guard Ian Beckles has already put a heavyweight comp on him, and it is the kind of praise that instantly raises the stakes for a young defender trying to carve out his place in Tampa Bay. [Read more 🡒]