The Bucs’ season opener sends them straight into a test case against a Bengals offense that can stress a defense in a lot of different ways. Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Mike Gesicki and Andrei Iosivas give Cincinnati plenty of weapons to throw at Tampa Bay on Sunday, and the challenge for Todd Bowles’ group is figuring out how to keep that passing game from getting comfortable.
There’s one important wrinkle to keep in mind: last year, the Bengals were without Burrow for most of the season, so some of the numbers around this matchup come with that context attached. Even so, the broader picture still matters.
Cincinnati is an offense that stays on schedule, but it doesn’t create a ton of explosives. The run game has been better than it gets credit for, but the Bengals haven’t exactly embraced it.
Personnel-wise, they also aren’t especially wild, which has helped them remain in the top third of the league in both 11 personnel and 12 personnel.
That structure gives Tampa Bay a pretty clear starting point on first down. The ideal approach is to keep the box light and dare Cincinnati to hand the ball off.
The Bengals prefer to throw on first down, and Cover 2 with two high safeties should make that a tougher ask. The Bucs have the front to handle the run without crowding the line, and Tykee Smith and Antoine Winfield Jr. both have the trigger speed to help against Cincinnati’s mid and wide zone concepts.
When the Bengals widen out on first down, Bowles can lean on his pressure looks and unusual rotations to get back into Cover 2 after the snap. That’s where the chess match starts to matter.
A look like the one Arizona used against Cincinnati showed how this can work: the Cardinals matched a spread empty set with six men on the line, forcing Burrow to pull Gesicki in for six-man protection and removing an eligible receiver from the play. Arizona then rotated into Cover 2 with only a three-man rush, which wasted Gesicki, loaded up coverage and eventually forced Burrow to throw it away.
That same two-high structure also gives Tampa Bay a chance to limit Ja’Marr Chase, who carries a 32% target share on first down. Chase also prefers the left side of the field, which could put Jacob Parrish in the crosshairs as the corner most likely to see him.
The second-down picture isn’t much different. Cincinnati’s biggest trouble spot comes against two-high looks with a pole runner through the middle.
One example showed the Bills using Cover 6 with a MEG tag on Chase at the top of the screen. Buffalo paired Cover 4 to the passing strength with the middle linebacker carrying vertical on the tight end, making sure Chase never had a clean path deep and that three defenders were in place to handle any vertical threat.
Burrow took the easy answer and dumped it to the field flat, where the rally-and-tackle finish kept the gain small.
If Tampa Bay can survive first and second down, that opens the door to its more familiar third-down work. In third-and-medium, the Bucs can settle into cover-3 looks and force Cincinnati into tighter throws.
One Ravens example shows the kind of pressure structure that can help. Baltimore lined up Roquan Smith over the right guard and threatened the blitz with nickel Ar’Darius Washington from outside the right tackle, while setting both defensive tackles and the opposite edge to the offense’s left.
That pushed the Bengals into max protect, keeping both the back and the tight end in to block.
After the snap, Baltimore got three defenders over two to the field, with Washington dropping to the hook, the strong safety breaking to the flat and the outside corner sinking into the deep third. The deep safety shaded to that side as well, sealing off the field and forcing Burrow to Chase on the shallow route, where three defenders were waiting to converge.
That same kind of concept could fit Tampa Bay’s personnel. It can create a one-on-one for Rueben Bain Jr. with Keionte Scott and Josiah Trotter on the line as pass-rushing threats, while Tykee Smith comes crashing down as the flat defender. The idea is to play to each guy’s strengths and make Burrow solve the picture after the snap.
Bowles’ blitz tendency is part of the equation too. In recent years, he has often blitzed on early downs, trying to pack the box, create third-and-long and then win with four rushers on third down.
Against Cincinnati, though, there’s a strong case for flipping that approach. Burrow likes to attack outside the numbers, so the Bucs can play light boxes, mug the linebackers and leave the middle of the field open pre-snap.
From there, Bowles can vary which four rushers he sends. Then, once he’s spent the early downs bluffing exotic blitzes and sim pressures, he can turn loose his best blitz calls selectively on third down to keep Burrow and the Bengals offense guessing.
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