With the regular season one week away, the quarterback conversation is taking a different turn. Instead of arguing over the biggest names at the top, the focus here is on the passers who are most likely to blow past what people expect from them in 2026.
That matters because, as always, quarterback play drives everything. There’s plenty of real talent at the position right now, but the league’s so-called middle class has never felt larger. Those quarterbacks can keep a team afloat, and in some cases keep coaches and executives employed, but they are not enough on their own to carry a club to the Super Bowl.
So here’s the list of quarterbacks most likely to shatter expectations this season.
- Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mayfield has already shown what this offense can look like when he’s rolling. In his first season with Tampa Bay in 2023, he threw 28 touchdown passes and posted a 94.6 passer rating.
The drop-off from 2024 to 2025 was significant, though. Mayfield finished with 15 fewer touchdowns and nearly 1,000 fewer passing yards, which makes the arrival of new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson worth watching closely. Robinson has already worked as an OC and spent time coaching under the Sean McVay-era Rams, and Tampa Bay’s decision to bring him in suggests the Bucs are chasing that same kind of offensive spark.
There’s also a familiar thread here. Mayfield’s 2024 season came with Liam Coen, who most recently landed with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Coen and Robinson both worked together under McVay, so the connection is obvious: Tampa wanted back into that coaching tree for 2026.
And if Mayfield can get anywhere close to what he did in 2024, the Bucs could have one of the more surprising offenses in the league.
- Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans
The Titans’ setup is still far from complete, but the pieces around Ward are more interesting now than they were a year ago. Brian Daboll’s presence stands out most, and while that may sound odd at first glance, he brings a sharp quarterback mind to the table.
Ward, meanwhile, finished his rookie season playing noticeably better down the stretch. That late improvement makes a second-year jump feel like the obvious bet.
Tennessee also added two new targets in Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson, giving Ward a little more help in the passing game. The roster still isn’t fully ready, and the Titans aren’t close to the top of the AFC yet, but that’s part of why Ward’s upside is easy to overlook.
The franchise still looks like it is a year or two away from real playoff contention, which is exactly why a bigger leap from Ward isn’t getting the attention it probably should.
In Other News...
Buccaneers May Already Regret Letting Jack Pyburn Get Away
Jack Pyburn did enough in August to make the Buccaneers take notice, even if it did not keep him in Tampa Bay for long. The undrafted rookie flashed all preseason and finished with four sacks, tying for the most among edge defenders, before the Bucs waived him during final roster cuts and watched Kansas City move quickly to claim him for its 53-man roster.
For a team always hunting for young pass-rush help, that kind of departure can linger. Todd Bowles had already singled out Pyburns work ethic and production, which only sharpens the question of whether Tampa Bay gave up on him a little too early, or whether the Chiefs simply got there first and saw enough to make the gamble worthwhile. [Read more 🡒]
Buccaneers Suddenly Have A Real Path Back To The Top
The NFC South does not look especially imposing heading into this season, and that has opened a lane for Tampa Bay to get back where it has spent plenty of time in recent years. ESPNs Dan Graziano sees the Buccaneers as a team that could reclaim the division, pointing to the kind of ingredients that often matter most in a crowded race: a quarterback with something to prove, better health, and a roster that has been reinforced on both sides of the ball.
Baker Mayfields motivation in a contract year sits at the center of that optimism, but it is not the only reason Tampa Bay is drawing notice. The Buccaneers have added talent on offense and defense, and if the health picture improves, they should have a real chance to separate themselves from what is expected to be a weak division. The bigger question is whether all of those pieces come together quickly enough to make the path back to the top look as clear as it does on paper. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Quarterback Battle Just Put New Pressure On Atlanta's Roster
Baker Mayfields situation in Tampa Bay remains one of the more interesting subplots of the offseason, especially with Todd Bowles noting the quarterbacks motivation even before a contract extension is finalized. For the Buccaneers, that kind of stability matters. Mayfield has already become the focal point of the offense, and Bowles comments only reinforce how central he is to what Tampa Bay wants to build heading into the next stretch of team planning.
Across the division, the Falcons are juggling a different kind of quarterback conversation, with general manager Ian Cunningham talking through the teams current situation and the roster moves that have come with it. The broader NFC South picture also includes Carolina, where Dan Morgan has been addressing roster commitments, injuries and practice squad decisions, a reminder that every team in the division is still sorting out the same basic question: who is ready now, and who still has more to prove before the picture settles? [Read more 🡒]