The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are starting to get a different kind of attention.
For much of the offseason, the story around Tampa Bay was all baggage: last year’s late-season collapse, the public contract mess with Baker Mayfield and Vita Vea, and a general sense from national observers that the Bucs were headed for another uneven season. That view showed up in the numbers, too. Tampa has mostly sat in the low 20s in preseason NFL power rankings, and its projected win total has usually landed at 8 or 8.5, with the under often treated as the safer side.
That skepticism made some sense on paper after the way last season ended. The Bucs went 8-9, but only after finishing 2-7 down the stretch. The defense was accused of quitting, and the offense was battered by injuries to most of its key players.
Still, the idea that this team should be written off again is starting to crack.
Mayfield has already made his own stance clear, saying the Bucs will “shock a lot of people” this year. And he’s not the only one pushing back on the gloomy projection. Dominique Foxworth recently said rookie Rueben Bain Jr. makes Tampa a Super Bowl contender, while Kimberley Martin of ESPN said the Bucs can “easily” get to the NFC Championship Game.
Now Dan Pompei of The Athletic has added another voice to that shift, saying an 8-win total for Tampa Bay is “too low.”
Pompei’s case is straightforward: last year was a mess, and even a modest break in health could change the entire picture. Tampa Bay won 10 games two seasons ago, and Pompei believes a similar total is within reach in 2026. He points to Bain, new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, and the soft NFC South as reasons the Bucs should clear eight wins.
“The Bucs are capable of winning more games than they did one year ago, when they were 8-9 in a season when everything that could have gone wrong did. The Bucs won 10 games two years ago and are capable of a similar win total in 2026, especially considering the mediocre state of the NFC South.
For them to exceed eight wins, they will need impact from rookie edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr., effective game planning and play calling from new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, and better health. Having a motivated and slightly perturbed Baker Mayfield won’t hurt. - Dan Pompei”
That last line fits Mayfield perfectly. He has built a career on playing with a chip on his shoulder, and the way this offseason has unfolded seems likely to feed that edge even more.
The bigger picture is simple: an 8-win line looks awfully small for a team that has already shown it can reach 10 wins, is being handed a favorable division, and has enough new pieces to change the tone fast. The Bucs are starting to look less like a team that should be doubted and more like one that could beat expectations in a hurry.
In Other News...
Mike Evans Is Giving Buccaneers Fans A Familiar Worry Again
Mike Evans first training camp with the 49ers has already brought a little too much familiar discomfort, as the veteran wide receiver has been dealing with a string of minor injuries that have interrupted his preparation. The latest issue is a groin injury that has kept him from practicing, adding another layer of concern for a player the team brought in on a three-year contract with guaranteed money and per-game roster bonuses.
For a player whose availability has long mattered as much as his production, even these early camp setbacks are enough to make fans uneasy about what the season might look like. The 49ers are counting on Evans to settle in quickly and be a reliable part of the offense, but the recurring nature of these injuries has left his status and workload worth watching closely as camp moves on. [Read more 🡒]
Buccaneers Pass Rush Plan Just Hit A Worrying Rueben Bain Snag
Rueben Bain Jr.s first summer with the Buccaneers has already hit an unexpected pause. The first-round pick suffered an AC sprain during a joint practice against the Jacksonville Jaguars, a setback that briefly disrupted what had been building into an important stretch for Tampa Bays pass rush plans.
The good news for the Buccaneers is that the injury is not considered serious, and Bain is expected to be ready for Week 1 against the Cincinnati Bengals. He sat out the next days practice and is likely to spend the rest of the offseason focused on recovery, but the team appears to have avoided anything that would threaten his early-season availability. [Read more 🡒]
Bucs Receiver Battle Just Got More Interesting After Mike Evans Exit
Mike Evans is gone after 13 seasons, and the Buccaneers are suddenly looking at a receiver room that has a very different feel to it. For a team that spent years leaning on one of the leagues most reliable targets, the focus now shifts to the pieces still in place, with Baker Mayfield already signaling confidence in Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, Jalen McMillan and rookie Ted Hurst as Tampa Bay sorts out how to replace Evans production and leadership.
Godwin brings the most proven track record, while Egbuka and McMillan are expected to have bigger roles as the Bucs reshape the passing game around them. Health and experience will matter as camp and the season unfold, and Hurst adds another layer of intrigue as a rookie trying to earn his place in the mix. The challenge is obvious enough, but so is the opportunity, because this could be the group that determines how smoothly Tampa Bay moves into life after Evans. [Read more 🡒]