The Tampa Bay Buccaneers spent the offseason trying to erase the memory of last year’s collapse, but one projection model still isn’t buying the turnaround.
Austin Mock of The Athletic has Tampa Bay slotted as the NFC’s 10th-best team, with the Bucs projected for 8.0 wins and just a 39.2% chance to reach the playoffs. That number puts them behind plenty of the conference’s heavy hitters, but it still leaves Tampa atop the NFC South in the model’s eyes.
The rest of the division doesn’t inspire much confidence either. The New Orleans Saints came in 11th at 7.8 projected wins and a 35.1% playoff chance, while the Atlanta Falcons landed 14th at 7.1 wins and 28.8%. The Carolina Panthers were next at 15th, projected for 6.7 wins and a 25.2% shot at the postseason.
That’s a sobering read for a team that attacked the offseason from every angle. Tampa Bay moved on from Josh Grizzard after the offense slipped with him in charge following Liam Coen’s departure, then brought in Zac Robinson, who had been the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons. The Bucs also added pieces in free agency, including running back Kenneth Gainwell, who is expected to pair with Bucky Irving in the backfield, along with Alex Anzalone, Al-Quadin Muhammad, and A'Shawn Robinson to help reshape the defensive front seven.
Then came the draft, and Tampa may have landed one of the league’s strongest classes. Rueben Bain Jr. has become the most buzzed-about rookie in years and is the favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Josiah Trotter has stood out since the pads came on in training camp, Ted Hurst has been turning heads at receiver, and Keionte Scott is expected to open the season as the starting slot cornerback.
Still, the skepticism hasn’t gone away.
Mock’s biggest concerns are the Bucs’ age and Baker Mayfield’s contract situation. He pointed to the unresolved extension talks as a possible distraction, even if Mayfield has insisted it won’t be.
“The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are favored to win the division, but they're old, and their quarterback, Baker Mayfield, is unhappy that he hasn't signed an extension yet. Perhaps Mayfield will use that as motivation and deliver a big season. If he doesn't, though, maybe he's not Tampa's QB next season.”
Mayfield, for his part, has said the Bucs will “shock a lot of people” this season. That kind of confidence is nice to hear, especially when the projections are this lukewarm.
There is some reason to keep the numbers in perspective. The same forecasting model had the Seattle Seahawks at just 8.6 wins last season, and they ended up winning the Super Bowl. So the Bucs aren’t exactly doomed by one projection.
Even so, it’s tough to look at this roster and think Tampa Bay should be any worse than it was a year ago. The Bucs did lose Mike Evans and Jamel Dean, but Evans was absent for most of last season anyway. And as the source notes, Tampa also went through much of the 2025 season without most of its offensive starters.
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