The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a season that looked promising at the halfway point and unraveled fast after that. They were sitting at 6-2 when they hit their Week 9 BYE, but the finish was rough: a 2-7 stretch that left them at 8-9 and out of the division race.
Now the focus turns to Baker Mayfield’s fourth year as the team’s quarterback, with Tampa Bay trying to get back on top of the NFC South. The division doesn’t have an elite team, but it also doesn’t have a disaster sitting at the bottom, which leaves the door open for just about anyone.
The betting market has set the Buccaneers’ 2026 win total at 8.5, with the UNDER juiced to -136. That puts the implied probability of Tampa Bay finishing 8-9 or worse at 57.63%.
That number feels too low for this group. The Buccaneers closed last season with four straight losses, and all four came by four points or less. That kind of late-game margin tends to swing back over time, and Tampa Bay looks positioned to benefit from that in 2026.
The quarterback edge also matters. The Buccaneers have the best quarterback in the division, while the Falcons still have a major question at the position, Tyler Shough still needs development, and Bryce Young isn’t the answer in Carolina.
A big part of the case for Tampa Bay is up front. The offensive line is expected to be healthy after being wrecked by injuries last season, and Tristan Wirfs, the All-Pro left tackle, is set to return. That should make a major difference for Mayfield and the offense as a whole.
The Buccaneers may not be a Super Bowl team this season, but the expectation here is that they get back to being the top club in the division and clear 8.5 wins.
In Other News...
Buccaneers Suddenly Have A Backup Quarterback Question To Weigh
The Browns decision to keep Deshaun Watson atop the depth chart for Week 1 has only sharpened the conversation around Shedeur Sanders, who impressed enough in the preseason to keep himself in the mix as a young quarterback with some real intrigue. After starting seven games as a rookie, Sanders enters the season in a familiar but awkward spot for a team that has to balance patience with the possibility that another club could come calling if it wants a backup with upside.
For the Buccaneers, that is the kind of question that tends to linger once the roster settles and the league starts looking for solutions behind center. Tampa Bay is among the teams mentioned as a possible fit, alongside the Rams, Eagles and Ravens, but nothing has moved beyond speculation at this point. The interesting part is not whether Sanders is available right now, but whether a team like the Bucs decides his talent is worth pressing for before the market tightens. [Read more 🡒]
Bucs May Have Found A Low-Cost Answer To A Troubling Depth Issue
Cody Ford has popped up as a possible low-cost addition for Tampa Bay, a move that would give the Buccaneers another veteran option along an offensive line that could use more reliable depth. Released by the Bengals, Ford brings a familiar blend of experience and versatility, with starts at both guard and tackle over the last five NFL seasons.
There is also a small layer of familiarity here that could matter as Tampa Bay weighs its options. Ford and Baker Mayfield were college teammates at Oklahoma during Mayfields Heisman season in 2017, and that shared history could be part of what makes Ford an appealing fit as the Bucs look for help without making a major financial commitment. [Read more 🡒]
Bucs Suddenly Have A Backup QB Problem They Can't Easily Solve
The Buccaneers are suddenly staring at a backup quarterback situation that looks less settled than it did a few weeks ago. Behind Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay has been sorting through Jake Brownings veteran experience and Jalon Daniels more dynamic preseason showing, and the contrast between the two has made the decision more interesting than expected.
Browning brings the kind of familiarity and steadiness teams usually want in a reserve, but Daniels has flashed the upside that can make a coaching staff pause. For a Buccaneers team that wants clarity behind its starter, the question now is whether it leans on the safer option or bets on the younger passer with more juice. [Read more 🡒]