The Buccaneers are heading into the season with a lot to prove, but the market isn’t exactly buying in. After a second-half collapse that dragged Tampa Bay from a 6-2 start to an 8-9 finish, BetMGM has set the Bucs’ win total at 8.5, and Vic Tafur of The Athletic thinks the under is the play.
That skepticism starts with how last season unraveled. Tampa didn’t just lose games - it lost its edge.
The Bucs dropped seven of their final nine, missed the playoffs, and left behind a mess that still hangs over the team. Lavonte David even said teammates called him out for "loafing."
Todd Bowles was blunt too, saying his defense was "just taking plays off." The low point came when Tampa blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead against the Atlanta Falcons, a collapse that helped seal the team’s fate.
Even with a strong draft and several aggressive moves in free agency, the bad taste from that finish hasn’t gone away. Tafur pointed to Mike Evans’ departure after 12 seasons as a warning sign, especially since the Buccaneers reportedly offered more money than the 49ers.
He also raised questions about Baker Mayfield’s ability to stay upright and effective over a full season, noting that Mayfield was dealing with knee, arm and elbow injuries last year. Tafur also framed Bowles as a .500 coach, citing his 35-33 record with Tampa Bay.
Here’s how Tafur put it:
"Evans jumping ship after 12 seasons, despite the Buccaneers offering more money than the 49ers did, should sound off alarms. Maybe he knows Baker Mayfield can no longer hold up for a full season at age 31.
Mayfield was hobbling with knee, arm and elbow injuries last season, and though he hasn’t missed a game in three years, his toughness overshadows his effectiveness down the stretch. Maybe Evans knows Todd Bowles is just a .500 coach (35-33 with Tampa Bay).
"That said, I love rookie pass rusher Rueben Bain Jr., and the division is still wide open, so a one-game improvement and nine wins is definitely possible."
There is still a case for Tampa Bay to bounce back. The NFC South was a mess last season, with no team finishing better than 8-9, and it’s expected to be weak again. The Bucs also added rookies Rueben Bain Jr., Josiah Trotter and Keionte Scott, along with free agents Alex Anzalone, Al-Quadin Muhammad and A'Shawn Robinson on defense.
Still, the burden is on Tampa to show last year was the exception, not the rule. For now, the doubts are loud, and one of the league’s most watched win totals has the Bucs sitting right on the edge.
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