The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one of those teams that can make a power ranking look smart or silly in a hurry. That’s the reality heading into 2026, and it’s why the Bucs keep landing in that awkward middle ground: enough talent to dream big, enough uncertainty to make the floor feel shaky.
Kris Knox of Bleacher Report slotted Tampa Bay 16th in his latest NFL power rankings, a step up from the 22nd-place spot the Bucs recently received in offseason rankings. And that range tells the story. This is a team with a real ceiling, but also plenty of warning signs.
There’s a lot to like if you’re betting on the optimistic version of the Bucs. Tampa Bay added several high-profile free agents and promising rookies, moves that should help a defense that fell short of expectations in 2025.
The division also gives the Bucs a path. The NFC South had zero teams with a winning record last year, and none of Tampa’s rivals are expected to light up the league in 2026.
In a setup like that, nine or 10 wins could be enough to finish first.
Health is another reason the Bucs can talk themselves into a bounce-back year. Last season, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin Jr., and Jalen McMillan all missed major time with injuries.
Bucky Irving was out for seven games, and four of the five starting offensive linemen each missed at least five. If that group stays on the field more often, Tampa’s offensive line could end up being one of the league’s best.
But the other side of the argument is just as easy to see.
The defense didn’t just underperform last year - the effort was a problem, too. Todd Bowles acknowledged the unit was "taking plays off," and Lavonte David was criticized by teammates for "loafing" on the field. That kind of stuff doesn’t disappear just because a new season arrives.
Bowles enters the year on the hot seat, and a slow start could put his job in jeopardy by the bye week. The Bucs also have to figure out how to replace David, Evans, and cornerback Jamel Dean, all of whom left in free agency.
Knox captured that tension in his evaluation, writing: "One way or another, 2026 is going to be a pivotal season for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They looked like one of the top teams in the NFC early last season before a rash of significant injuries led to a late-season slide.
"Quarterback Baker Mayfield played like an early MVP candidate before injuries started to impact his performance, too.
"Mayfield started all 17 games last season. However, recently retired linebacker Lavonte David told The Arena podcast (h/t NFL.com's Kevin Patra) that the QB 'had a lot of injuries that you didn't expect a quarterback to play through.'
"Now, Mayfield is entering a contract year, and while the Bucs should be healthier, they'll also be moving forward without David and fellow franchise cornerstone Mike Evans.
"Tampa will have to stay healthy, adequately replace its departed stars, and get the good version of Mayfield to reclaim its spot atop the NFC South. If those things don't happen, we could see significant changes next offseason."
That’s the tightrope Tampa Bay is walking. If everything clicks, the Bucs can win the division and make noise in the postseason. If it doesn’t, the season could unravel fast, and the organization may be staring at major changes by next offseason.
For now, the safest read is simple: the Bucs belong in the middle of the pack until they prove otherwise. But the range of outcomes here is huge, and by the end of the season, Tampa Bay could look a lot better - or a lot worse - than 16th.
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Bucs Draft Miss Is Heading Into A Defining Camp Battle
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For Braswell, the next few weeks are about more than just showing flashes in camp or carrying that work into preseason games. He needs to prove he still fits into Tampa Bays pass-rush plans at a time when the depth chart is crowded and every practice rep matters, making this one of the more defining stretches of his young Bucs career. [Read more 🡒]