The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense took a clear step backward in 2025, and now there’s a stat that helps explain why it felt so easy to read.
Injuries were a major part of the story. Tampa Bay never got a game with its full starting offensive line together, the receiver group was hit hard as well, and Baker Mayfield spent the year dealing with various injuries of his own. But the biggest issue may have been the way the offense was being called.
Former offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard’s play-calling helped turn the unit predictable, especially late in the season. And according to new data from former NFL strategy and analytics coach Ryan Paganetti, the Buccaneers were the most predictable offense in the league.
Paganetti’s offseason project looked at each team’s run-pass tendencies based on quarterback alignment. His breakdown showed just how obvious Tampa Bay became when Mayfield was lined up in shotgun versus under center.
When Mayfield was in shotgun, the Buccaneers passed 76.6% of the time. When he was under center, they passed only 24% of the time.
That 52.6-point swing was the largest in the NFL. In plain terms, defenses could get a strong read on what was coming just by looking at where Mayfield lined up.
“Bucs were both heavy pass in gun and heavy run under center, and also used this group at the 2nd highest rate in the league,” wrote Paganetti. “Strong tells is a pattern with Tampa. I’ve had many generally frame the Bucs coaching research set up as effectively in the Stone Age.”
That’s a blunt assessment, but the numbers back it up.
Paganetti also noted that the Falcons were among the five most predictable teams in this category under Zac Robinson, while the Dolphins, with Mike McDaniel, were the most balanced and least predictable offense in the league by a wide margin. Tampa Bay pursued McDaniel for its offensive coordinator opening this offseason, but he ended up choosing the Chargers.
The metric has some credibility, too. The Seahawks and Patriots, last season’s Super Bowl teams, both landed in the top 10 least predictable offenses.
For a Tampa Bay team with plenty of offensive talent, being this easy to diagnose is a problem. In a league where defensive staffs live on tendencies, the Buccaneers gave away too much. The new offensive coaching staff will have to clean that up if Mayfield and the offense are going to get back to elite form.
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