The Green Bay Packers head to Tampa Bay in Week 4 with both teams carrying plenty of baggage and not much offensive momentum. Green Bay is coming off a rough home loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday night in Week 3, while the Buccaneers are still searching for their first win of the 2026 season.
The quarterback situation in Tampa Bay is the biggest change heading into this one. Baker Mayfield dislocated his thumb against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3, and head coach Todd Bowles said he’ll miss three weeks. That puts rookie Jalon Daniels in line to make his first NFL start against a Packers team that may badly need a win to keep pace in the NFC North.
Green Bay sits at 1-2 and already faces an uphill climb in a division with the Minnesota Vikings at 3-0 and the Detroit Lions at 2-1. Even so, the Packers are favored on the road against a Tampa Bay team that has already lost twice at home and is staring at a possible 0-4 start.
The numbers on Green Bay’s offense explain why this game feels so uneasy despite the spread. Without Josh Jacobs, the Packers are averaging a league-worst 3.0 yards per carry and sit dead last in EPA/Rush.
They’re also 25th in EPA/Play and 28th in success rate. Jordan Love has put up 844 passing yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions through three weeks, but he’s completing only 52.4 percent of his throws, which is a problem when the run game isn’t holding up its end.
Tampa Bay’s defense has given the Bucs a fighting chance. It ranks sixth in the league in EPA/Play and 12th in EPA/Pass, so Love won’t get an easy reset game here. The Packers, for their part, haven’t exactly been lighting it up either, scoring 22, 20 and 14 points and ranking 28th in the league in EPA/Play.
The Buccaneers’ offense has been even worse. Through three weeks, they own the NFL’s worst EPA/Play on offense, and now they’re handing the keys to an undrafted rookie making his first start. That’s a tough spot for any quarterback, especially against a defense that has been solid enough to keep Green Bay from expecting a shootout.
Tampa Bay has also struggled to score even with Mayfield available, putting up fewer than 20 points in back-to-back games. On the other side, Green Bay is just 22nd in EPA/Play and looked shaky against Atlanta in Week 3.
Given how both offenses have looked and how well Tampa Bay’s defense has played, the UNDER stands out in this matchup. The Packers have failed to cover every game this season, and with Daniels making his first career start, laying more than a field goal with Green Bay is a pass.
In Other News...
Buccaneers Injury Concern Just Got Worse At The Worst Time
The Buccaneers are already juggling a growing injury list, and the timing could hardly be worse as they get ready for Green Bay. Baker Mayfield, Rueben Bain Jr., Jalen McMillan and Josiah Trotter have all been part of the health conversation this week, and now another key name has been added to the mix.
Chris Godwin landed on the injury report with an ankle issue and did not take part in practice, leaving Tampa Bay with even more to monitor before the Packers arrive. For a team trying to stay steady through the week, the concern now stretches beyond who is available to who can get through the prep work in time. [Read more 🡒]
Gronk Just Turned Up Pressure On The Buccaneers Biggest Decision
Rob Gronkowskis latest comments landed at a rough moment for Tampa Bay, with the Buccaneers staring at an 0-3 start and already dealing with the kind of early-season instability that can force hard conversations. Gronk pointed to the absence of Mike Evans and Lavonte David as part of the reason the team has struggled, and he framed the situation as one that may demand more than just a quick fix. The pressure is only sharper because the Bucs have had to turn to undrafted rookie Jalon Daniel at quarterback while Baker Mayfield nurses an injury.
For an organization that has spent recent years trying to stay in the contender conversation, the next step is no longer just about getting healthy. It is about whether the current structure can steady itself soon enough to prevent a bad start from becoming something far more serious. Gronkowski openly raised the possibility of change on the coaching side, putting Todd Bowles squarely in the middle of a discussion Tampa Bay would prefer to avoid this early in the season. [Read more 🡒]
Bucs Suddenly Face A Week 4 Concern They Cant Ignore
The Buccaneers are heading into Week 4 with an injury report that already looks like a storyline in itself, and it comes at a time when the margin for error is getting thin. Tampa Bay has several important offensive and defensive pieces either missing or limited in practice, creating some unease around a roster that has been trying to stay steady through the first month.
Chris Godwin Jr. was among the notable absences because of an ankle injury, while Rueben Bain Jr. is still working back from groin and shoulder issues. The bigger concern for Tampa Bay may be the quarterback situation, with the team hoping Baker Mayfield can return soon without needing a trip to injured reserve, a decision point that could shape how the Buccaneers navigate the next stretch. [Read more 🡒]