Despite a rocky November that saw the Buccaneers drop four of their last five-including a three-game skid that knocked them from 5-1 to 6-5-Tampa Bay entered Week 13 still clinging to the top spot in the NFC South. Not exactly how they drew it up, but with the division as inconsistent as ever, the Bucs found themselves in a familiar December position: playing meaningful football with everything still on the table.
This time of year has been good to Todd Bowles’ crew in recent seasons. Over the past two years, they’ve gone 10-2 from Weeks 13 through 18-a stretch where they’ve flipped the switch and looked like a playoff-caliber team. And on Sunday, facing a 3-8 Cardinals team at home while the Panthers were welcoming the NFC-leading Rams, it felt like the Bucs had a prime opportunity to reassert some control in the division.
But as has been the case all season in the NFC South, nothing came easy-and nothing went according to plan.
Bucs Survive, Panthers Surprise
Tampa Bay did their part-barely. In a gritty 20-17 win over Arizona, the Bucs leaned on a little bit of everything: creativity, defense, and timely execution.
A rare receiving touchdown from left tackle Tristan Wirfs (yes, you read that right), a rushing score from rookie Bucky Irving in his return to the lineup, and two takeaways from the defense were just enough to get the job done. It wasn’t pretty, but at this point in the season, style points don’t matter-wins do.
The problem? Carolina wasn’t interested in playing the role of spoiler.
Instead, they pulled off one of the most surprising results of the weekend, knocking off the 9-2 Rams, 31-28, in Charlotte. The Panthers forced three turnovers, scored a defensive touchdown, and got a breakout performance from Bryce Young, who tossed three touchdowns in his best outing of the season.
Suddenly, Carolina is 7-6 and right on Tampa Bay’s heels heading into their bye week.
The Panthers: Wild Card or Wild Card?
Carolina’s season has been one of the strangest rollercoaster rides in recent memory. They’ve beaten the Packers at Lambeau and now the Rams at home-two wins that suggest they can hang with anyone.
But they’ve also lost to the 2-10 Saints and suffered blowout losses to the Patriots (42-13) and Bills (40-7). It’s been a weekly coin flip.
Still, they’ve put themselves in position to challenge for the division crown, and with two games remaining against the Bucs-including a potentially decisive Week 18 showdown-this thing is far from over. The Panthers are unpredictable, but they’re dangerous. And that’s not a team you want to face in a must-win game.
Falcons Fade, Saints Eliminated
As for the rest of the NFC South, the picture is starting to clear-and it’s not looking good for Atlanta or New Orleans.
The Falcons suffered a brutal loss to the Jets, giving up a game-tying touchdown to Tyrod Taylor with under two minutes to play before losing on a 56-yard Nick Folk field goal at the buzzer. Now at 4-8, Atlanta has dropped three games behind the Bucs and any momentum they had after last week’s win has evaporated. Raheem Morris’ seat is officially scorching.
Meanwhile, the Saints were eliminated from playoff contention after a wild finish in Miami. Trailing 19-17 with just over a minute to go, New Orleans went for two-and paid the price.
Tyler Shough’s pass was picked off and returned by Minkah Fitzpatrick for two points the other way, sealing a 21-17 Dolphins win. The Saints are now 2-10 and officially out of the postseason hunt.
What’s Next in the NFC South Race?
With Carolina on a bye in Week 14, Tampa Bay has a chance to create some breathing room. A win over the 2-10 Saints would give the Bucs a full one-game lead heading into the final stretch.
But a loss? That would open the door for the Panthers to pull even atop the division.
Tampa Bay’s path to a fifth straight NFC South title is straightforward: win the next three-against the Saints, Falcons, and Panthers-and they clinch the crown. That would put them at 10-5, and even if Carolina matched that record, the Bucs would hold the tiebreaker thanks to a superior division record.
NFC South Standings After Week 13:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-5 (2-0 in NFC South)
- Carolina Panthers: 7-6 (2-1 in NFC South) - 0.5 games back
- Atlanta Falcons: 4-8 (1-3 in NFC South) - 3 games back
- New Orleans Saints: 2-10 (1-2 in NFC South) - 5 games back
Remaining Schedules:
- Bucs: vs. Saints (2-10), vs.
Falcons (4-8), at Panthers (7-6), at Dolphins (5-7)
- Panthers: BYE, at Saints (2-10), vs.
Bucs (7-5), vs. Seahawks (9-3)
- Falcons: vs. Seahawks (9-3), at Bucs (7-5), at Cardinals (3-9), vs.
Rams (9-3)
The Bigger NFC Picture
Carolina’s upset over the Rams didn’t just shake up the South-it sent ripples through the entire NFC playoff picture. The Rams, now 9-3, lost their grip on the No. 1 seed. That spot now belongs to the 9-3 Chicago Bears, who took care of the Eagles on Black Friday and jumped to the top via tiebreaker.
Seattle’s 26-0 shutout win over the Vikings keeps them in the thick of both the NFC West and Wild Card races. The Seahawks are also 9-3, just behind the Rams due to the head-to-head loss.
Philadelphia’s loss to Chicago drops them to 8-4 and into the No. 3 seed, while Tampa Bay, as NFC South leader, holds the No. 4 spot at 7-5. The Packers and 49ers round out the current playoff field.
If the Playoffs Started Today:
- (1) Bears - First-round bye
- (2) Rams vs. (7) 49ers
- (3) Eagles vs. (6) Packers
- (4) Buccaneers vs. (5) Seahawks
In the Hunt:
- 8. Lions (7-5)
- 9. Cowboys (6-5-1)
- 10. Panthers (7-6)
With five weeks to go, the NFC playoff race is wide open. The Bucs control their own destiny in the South, but with Carolina lurking and the Seahawks, Lions, and Cowboys all pushing for Wild Card spots, there’s no room for error. December football is here-and the margin for mistakes is gone.