The Tampa Bay Buccaneers bet big on Baker Mayfield, and through this stretch of the 2026 season, that wager is looking worse by the week.
Tampa Bay handed Mayfield a three-year, $165 million extension because the team believed he was “their guy.” That deal made him the third-highest-paid player in the NFL at $55 million per year, putting him in the same annual salary neighborhood as Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence. The problem is that the production has not come close to matching the price tag.
Mayfield’s numbers are brutal. He sits 35th in both EPA per play and success rate, with a -0.225 EPA per play and a 37% success rate.
Among quarterbacks with at least 100 passes this season, that leaves him dead last. At this point, he has been essentially the worst quarterback in the NFL in 2026.
To be fair, Tampa Bay’s issues are not all on him. Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson has built a passing game that looks stale and predictable, one that does not play to the strengths of the roster. The Buccaneers also have a glaring Mike Evans-sized void at receiver, and it is a hole they have not been able to patch, even by committee.
But that is exactly why the Bucs paid Mayfield. At $55 million a year, he was supposed to lift the offense around him.
He has not needed to carry a massive burden, either. The offensive line is healthy again and back among the league’s best, and the run game powered the offense in blowout wins over Carolina and Atlanta, helping set a two-game franchise record.
Instead of raising the floor, Mayfield has lowered it. Tampa Bay is one of only two teams in the league with a better rush EPA (-0.031) than pass EPA (-0.165). The other is Pittsburgh, and the Steelers own the NFL’s best rushing attack by EPA.
There is even a case that the Buccaneers’ undrafted rookie, Jalon Daniels, has been the more effective quarterback. Daniels owns a better EPA per play at -0.060 and a higher success rate at 41.2%.
Tampa Bay has not won a game in which Mayfield has attempted more than 11 passes. Daniels played a major role in the win over the Dallas Cowboys, completing 19 of 25 throws for 189 yards and a touchdown.
When Mayfield has been asked to do more than simply hand the ball off, the turnovers have followed. He has coughed it up at least once in every game where he has had a larger passing role, and those mistakes against Cincinnati and Chicago directly led to defensive touchdowns that swung both one-score games.
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The move opens another spot at receiver for a group that has not found much traction in the passing game this season. Sills had recently returned from injury and got into three games, but he never became a real factor in the offense, leaving the Buccaneers with one more opening to evaluate as they continue searching for more reliable production on the perimeter. [Read more 🡒]