Through six weeks, the Buccaneers are staring at a season that has already gone off the rails. Tampa Bay sits at 1-5, alone in last place in the NFC South, and with 11 games still to play, the bigger question is how ugly this gets before the teardown begins next offseason.
The rest of the schedule offers a little bit of everything: division games, a primetime trip to Chicago, a brutal road date in Baltimore, and a few matchups that at least give Tampa Bay a chance to salvage something from the wreckage. But when you lay it all out, the path to a respectable finish looks thin.
The first swing game comes in Week 7 at Carolina, and the pick here is a Buccaneers loss no matter who is under center. Baker Mayfield may be back from injury, or Jalon Daniels could be making his fourth straight start, but Carolina is the NFC South leader at 3-2 and looks like the more stable team. The Panthers are young, ascending, and don’t have much reason to fear Tampa Bay right now.
Tampa Bay’s one chance to bounce back early comes at home against Atlanta in Week 8, and that one is much harder to call. The Falcons have been streaky, but their offense has plenty of weapons in Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts, who seems to play his best games against the Buccaneers.
Atlanta has also won its last three games at Raymond James Stadium. Still, the prediction here is that Tampa Bay finally flips the script and gets a win.
Then comes the rough part. In Week 9, the Buccaneers travel to Chicago for a Sunday Night Football matchup against a Bears team that is rolling under head coach Ben Johnson and quarterback Caleb Williams.
With Tampa Bay’s struggles in primetime, this feels like a spot where things could get away from them in a hurry. After that is the bye week, and it arrives with the Bucs at 2-7.
The back half of the schedule does include a few opportunities. A post-bye trip to Detroit in Week 11 is a loss, though the Lions’ defense at least gives Tampa Bay a sliver of hope if the offense can ever get going under Zac Robinson. Then Monday Night Football brings Carolina back to Raymond James in Week 12, and Tampa Bay avoids the sweep with a much-needed division win.
Week 13 against the Chargers looks like another spot where Tampa Bay can cash in. Los Angeles has been every bit as disappointing as the Buccaneers, and Justin Herbert is going through the worst season of his career. The cross-country trip makes things harder for the Chargers, and this is one of the games that feels most doable for Tampa Bay.
After that, though, the slate gets nasty again. The Buccaneers head to Baltimore in Week 14, where they haven’t beaten the Ravens since 2002.
That streak isn’t ending here, and this one is projected as a Ravens blowout. Tampa Bay then gets a home date with New Orleans in Week 15 and takes advantage, picking up what would be its final win of the season before falling again at Atlanta in Week 16.
The last two games bring more pain. Tampa Bay hosts the Rams in Week 17, and that is the result the prediction is most confident about: another loss.
The Buccaneers are 2-9 in their last 11 meetings with Los Angeles, including a 34-7 loss last season, and the Rams have been a nightmare matchup for them. The season ends in Week 18 at New Orleans, with the Buccaneers dropping a third straight to finish the year.
That leaves Tampa Bay at 5-12.
Under that projection, the Buccaneers would go 4-7 the rest of the way after the 1-5 start, split their NFC South games at 3-3, and beat the Chargers along the way. A finish like that would almost certainly trigger a coaching overhaul, and the front office would not be immune either. It would also force the organization to confront the obvious question: whether it’s time to blow everything up and start over.
From a draft standpoint, the Buccaneers would be in position to do something meaningful. If the season ended today, they’d hold the fourth overall pick.
A win over the Chargers would probably push them back a bit, and while the lowly Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans are out of reach, a selection in the 4-6 range looks realistic. Last year, the Browns and Commanders both finished 5-12 and picked sixth and seventh.
The year before, the Jets, Panthers and Saints all finished 5-12 and landed picks seven through nine.
The ideal realistic outcome for Tampa Bay would be the third overall pick, but even landing in that 4-6 range would give the Buccaneers a chance to add a premium player in a strong draft and begin the next chapter.
In Other News...
Leonard Fournette Just Added To Todd Bowles Biggest Buccaneers Problem
Todd Bowles is already facing plenty of scrutiny as the Buccaneers try to sort out their direction, and now Leonard Fournette has added another layer to the conversation. On a podcast, the former Tampa Bay running back offered a blunt view of Bowles leadership, saying the head coach is not the kind of vocal presence Bruce Arians was and that his messages on accountability do not come across the same way.
Fournette also drew a distinction between a defensive-minded coach and the offensive side of the locker room, suggesting Bowles did not spend as much attention there. He went a step further by implying this could be Bowles final season in Tampa Bay, a remark that only adds more intrigue to a situation that already has the Bucs under a microscope. [Read more 🡒]
Bucs Fans Still Have Reason To Fume Over How Week 6 Ended
The lingering frustration from Week 6 still has a clear target for Buccaneers fans: a Steelers game plan that left too much time on the clock when it mattered most. In a tight finish against Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh had a chance to squeeze the game down and make life easier on itself, but the decision-making around that late possession opened the door for the Bucs to stay alive.
Instead, the sequence swung back toward Tampa Bay in a way that kept the outcome in doubt longer than it needed to be. The Steelers came away with points, but not enough of a cushion to close the door, and the Buccaneers were left with a late chance to answer. For a team that has lived through plenty of close endings, it was the kind of finish fans will replay and second-guess for a while. [Read more 🡒]
Buccaneers Could Deal Familiar Veterans If This Slide Forces A Reset
A rough first six weeks has put the Buccaneers in an uncomfortable spot, and it is the kind of slide that can force a front office to at least listen if other teams come calling before the November 10 trade deadline. With the season veering off script, the conversation around Tampa Bay is no longer just about fixing the current stretch run, but about whether the team should start thinking about draft capital and a broader reset.
Several veterans have surfaced in that discussion because of a mix of contract situations, performance and usage, which makes the trade market worth watching closely. The tricky part for Tampa Bay is that moving established pieces can help stock the future, but it also risks thinning a roster that was built to compete now, and the next few weeks will show whether the Buccaneers view this as a temporary skid or the start of something more drastic. [Read more 🡒]