If there’s ever been a moment for Tampa Bay’s passing game to find its rhythm again, it might just be this Sunday in Miami. The Buccaneers, sitting at 7-8 and still clinging to playoff hopes in the wide-open NFC South, are heading into a matchup that lines up favorably on paper - especially against a Dolphins team reeling in the secondary.
Miami’s defense has taken some serious hits, both literally and figuratively. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is set to miss his second straight game, and cornerback Isaiah Johnson, who had just been elevated from the practice squad, tore his ACL in the team’s final practice of the week. That leaves the Dolphins thin in a secondary that’s already been under siege.
And that’s where Tampa Bay has a chance to strike. The Bucs have dropped three straight and six of their last seven, and the offense - particularly the passing game - has been stuck in neutral.
Baker Mayfield is playing through multiple injuries and it’s showing. In two of his last three games, he’s thrown for under 150 yards.
Since Week 14, he’s completing just 56% of his passes with four touchdowns and three interceptions. Those aren’t the kind of numbers that win you games in December, let alone playoff spots.
But if there’s a defense that might offer a get-right opportunity, it’s Miami’s. Since a dominant 34-10 win over the Jets - a game where New York barely cracked 140 passing yards - the Dolphins have been torched through the air.
In back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, they allowed Aaron Rodgers to complete 85% of his throws for two touchdowns, and Joe Burrow to hit on 78% with four scores. Even more concerning?
No interceptions in either game.
On the season, Miami’s allowing 209.1 passing yards per game and a whopping 11.1 yards per pass. That’s not a typo - 11.1 yards every time the ball goes in the air.
They’ve also surrendered 26 passing touchdowns. So yes, the opportunity is there for Mayfield and company to take advantage.
That said, it won’t be easy. Mayfield’s season-long numbers - 61.4% completion rate, 3,144 yards, 23 touchdowns, eight interceptions - suggest a quarterback who’s been solid but inconsistent.
He’s only topped 300 yards once this year (back in Week 5 against Seattle), and he’s failed to hit 250 yards in 10 of his 15 starts. That kind of output won’t cut it if Tampa wants to make a late-season run.
And now, the injury bug is biting at the worst time. Wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin Jr., the Bucs’ top two weapons, both sat out Friday’s practice.
Evans has racked up 303 yards and two touchdowns over the last three games, while Godwin has added 244 yards and a score. Together, they’ve combined for 25 catches and 268 yards in that span - solid production, but not quite the game-breaking impact Tampa needs.
Their status for Sunday is still up in the air, but it’s not trending in the right direction.
Making matters worse, All-Pro offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs has been ruled out for Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff. That’s a major loss for a unit that’s already had trouble keeping Mayfield upright and giving him time to work through progressions.
So, what does this all mean? It’s a high-stakes matchup between two struggling teams - one with postseason aspirations still alive, the other looking to play spoiler.
For Tampa Bay, it’s a chance to stop the bleeding and reignite a passing attack that’s been sputtering for weeks. For Miami, it’s about salvaging some pride and tightening up a defense that’s been far too generous through the air.
If Mayfield’s going to have a bounce-back game, this is the moment. But with key weapons potentially sidelined and protection issues looming, it’s going to take more than just a soft secondary to get this offense back on track.