Sunday’s Packers-Buccaneers matchup has all the ingredients of a grim little survival game. Two 0-3 teams.
A thin margin for error. And now Tampa Bay has to hand the keys to undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels, who is set for his first NFL start with Baker Mayfield sidelined by a dislocated thumb.
That’s a brutal ask for Daniels, especially with the Buccaneers already staring at a season that’s slipping fast. Mayfield is expected to miss multiple weeks, and Tampa Bay is already sitting on the wrong end of the league’s offensive numbers, ranking last in EPA/Play in 2026.
Green Bay hasn’t exactly been lighting it up either, but the Packers at least get a chance to reset after extended rest following their ugly home opener loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Jordan Love and the offense have looked uneven with Josh Jacobs on the Commissioner’s Exempt List, and the road ahead in the NFC North isn’t getting any easier with three teams already owning two or more wins.
Oddsmakers noticed the quarterback change right away. Green Bay opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but the line climbed to 3.5 once it became clear Mayfield would be out. The total is sitting at 39.5, one of the lowest numbers on the board this week, which makes sense given where both offenses stand: Tampa Bay 32nd in EPA/Play and Green Bay 25th.
The case for the Packers is pretty straightforward. Their offensive line has had trouble keeping Jordan Love clean, and that’s been a problem against every solid pass rush they’ve seen so far.
But Tampa Bay doesn’t bring a frightening pressure profile, ranking 22nd in pressure rate and 28th in quarterback hurry rate. That gives Green Bay a little breathing room, especially coming off a mini-BYE after Thursday Night Football.
The bigger issue for Tampa Bay is the unknown at quarterback. Daniels has no real NFL tape, and there’s no easy way to project how his first start will go. Still, it’s a lot to ask anyone to step in and cover as a 3.5-point underdog in this spot.
That’s why the lean here is toward Green Bay to get back on track, and why the under remains the more appealing angle. Tampa Bay has failed to crack 20 points in back-to-back games with Mayfield at quarterback, and the Packers haven’t been much better, scoring 22, 20 and 14 points while ranking 28th in EPA/Play. Add in a Buccaneers defense that has actually held up well, sitting sixth in EPA/Play and eighth in yards per play allowed, and the path to a low-scoring game is pretty clear.
So the pick is Packers to cover, with the under in play as well. For Green Bay, this looks like the kind of game where a bounce-back win is there for the taking.
In Other News...
Buccaneers Suddenly Face A Bigger Baker Mayfield Problem Than Expected
Baker Mayfields thumb injury has turned into a much bigger issue for the Buccaneers than a short-term scare. The veteran quarterback suffered a dislocated thumb and is expected to miss multiple games, with his return hinging on how quickly he regains grip strength. For Tampa Bay, the timing is especially tricky because Mayfield had been in the middle of another season as the teams starter after appearing in three games so far.
The immediate answer is rookie Jalon Daniels, who has been named the backup and will start while Mayfield is out. It puts an abrupt spotlight on Tampa Bays quarterback depth and raises the stakes around how the offense functions without the player the Buccaneers signed to a multi-year deal. The bigger question now is not just who starts next, but how long the team has to live without Mayfield and what kind of shape he is in when he finally returns. [Read more 🡒]
Packers Fan Goes Viral For A Gameday Moment Bucs Fans Pounced On
A gameday photo from the Packers-Buccaneers matchup quickly took on a life of its own, with a Green Bay fan in a cheese-themed outfit drawing plenty of attention on social media. Buccaneers fans, already tuned into a rough start for their own team, jumped on the image and helped turn a random moment from the stands into one of the evenings louder online talking points.
It fit the mood around Tampa Bay, where the Bucs came in at 0-3 and were turning to undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels at quarterback because of Baker Mayfields injury. Green Bay arrived at 1-2, but the game was about more than the records for Tampa Bay supporters, who had little patience to spare and plenty of time to notice, and react to, anything that stood out. [Read more 🡒]
Todd Bowles Just Became The Center Of Tampa Bay's Biggest Debate
The Buccaneers slow start has pushed Todd Bowles into the middle of a conversation nobody in Tampa Bay wanted to have this early. At 0-4, with a 3-12 record stretching back to last season, the losses are piling up fast enough to turn every miscue into a referendum on direction, execution and leadership. Bowles stepped to the podium after the latest setback and owned the mess, taking responsibility while insisting he still believes he can guide the team out of it.
Bowles has handled the public side of the slump the way a veteran coach usually does, but the frustration around the team is only growing because so many of the defeats have stayed within reach. Close games tend to sharpen the focus on the head coach, and if the Buccaneers keep coming up short in those spots, the accountability debate will only get louder. For now, Bowles is asking for patience, even as the results make that a harder sell by the week. [Read more 🡒]