The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are sitting at 3-6 heading into their bye week, and that kind of record usually doesn’t leave much room for playoff optimism. But the NFC South has turned this into a different kind of race.
Every team in the division has three wins. Tampa Bay and Atlanta are both 3-6, while Carolina and New Orleans, each coming off their bye, are 3-5. That leaves the Bucs just half a game out of the division picture for now, and with the Panthers and Saints set to face each other, Tampa Bay will likely be one game back after Sunday’s games are done.
Even with an 0-4 start and an offense that has struggled badly through the air, the Bucs still have a real path to the postseason. The Athletic’s playoff simulator gives Tampa Bay the best odds in the NFC South, putting the Bucs at 37% to win the division and 38% to make the playoffs.
That may not sound like much, but it’s still better than the rest of the field. The Falcons and Panthers are both at 23% to make the playoffs, while the Saints sit at 16% to win the NFC South.
Tampa Bay’s edge comes from the mess around it and from its own division results. The Bucs have already beaten both Carolina and Atlanta once this season, and both of those wins came while Tampa Bay threw the ball just 11 times. That matters because the Bucs can still build their case by stacking more divisional wins over their next four NFC South games, even if they stumble in other matchups outside the division.
This week, Tampa Bay gets to watch the standings shift from the sideline. The Panthers and Saints will play each other, and Atlanta faces a difficult Week 10 home game against the Kansas City Chiefs.
In Other News...
Bucs Made A Risky Deadline Choice At A Crucial Moment
With the NFL trade deadline passing and Tampa Bay sitting at a crossroads in its season, the Buccaneers opted for patience over action. Rather than reshaping the roster with a veteran addition or looking to cash in on an established piece, the team stood still, choosing not to make a move that would have signaled a bigger shift in direction.
That restraint was especially notable given the level of outside attention on the roster, with the Bucs still in position to chase the NFC South but not doing anything to materially change the group around them. It leaves Tampa Bay betting on the players already in the building to carry the stretch run, even as the deadline came and went with a chance to add future value or alter the balance of the roster. [Read more 🡒]
Buccaneers Have A David Walker Problem Fans Cant Ignore
Todd Bowles rotation off the edge against Chicago offered a revealing look at where the Buccaneers are right now. With Yaya Diaby out, the expectation was that David Walker would get a bigger chance to show what he can do after entering the game with four sacks, but Tampa Bay leaned on veteran Anthony Nelson next to rookie Rueben Bain Jr. instead. The setup made it clear the staff is still sorting out how it wants to develop its younger pass rushers while trying to keep the front productive in the moment.
Bain made his presence felt in a big way, helping swing the game with a forced fumble that set up Tampa Bays game-tying touchdown drive. That only sharpened the question around Walker, because the Buccaneers have reasons to want more from a player who has already flashed as a pass rusher. For a defense trying to build depth and find reliable answers while Diaby is sidelined, the way those snaps were handled stood out just as much as the plays themselves. [Read more 🡒]
Bucs Still Have A Real Shot To Save Their Season
At 3-6, the Buccaneers have spent most of the season trying to claw back into relevance, but the NFC South has kept the door open. Tampa Bay is still within striking distance of the division lead, sitting just half a game back, and the path ahead is far from impossible. The schedule does them plenty of favors, too, with a stretch that includes the Lions, Chargers, Ravens and Saints, plus four of the final eight games coming against division opponents.
The next few weeks will go a long way toward deciding whether this turns into a late-season push or another missed opportunity. A favorable slate only matters if Tampa Bay can take advantage of it, and there are enough tests ahead to make the margin for error thin. The Ravens game after the bye stands out as one of the most intriguing on the calendar, especially with the kind of uncertainty that can change a matchup before it even gets here. [Read more 🡒]