The Tampa Bay Buccaneers may be 0-3 and preparing to hand the offense to backup quarterback Jalon Daniels on Sunday, but they’re not walking into Raymond James Stadium with nothing on their side. Against the Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay has a few real edges - and the clearest one starts on the ground.
Green Bay’s run game has been a mess. The Packers sit dead last or tied for dead last in every major rushing volume category, averaging just 3.0 yards per carry and 48.7 rushing yards per game.
They also run the ball at a league-low 26.67% rate. The advanced numbers aren’t any kinder: Green Bay is sitting at -0.407 EPA/play on the ground, which ranks 32nd, and has a 33.3% success rate, good for 30th.
Tampa Bay, by comparison, hasn’t exactly lit it up rushing the ball, but it has been better. The Bucs are 12th in the NFL in yards per carry at 4.3, even if they rank 23rd in rushing yards per game at 94.3.
Their run-game EPA/play is -0.056, which ranks 13th, and their 40.9% success rate sits 20th. That gap matters, especially with Daniels making his first NFL start.
Tampa Bay will need the run game to help ease that burden, and it won’t have to worry much about Green Bay answering back on the other side.
The Bucs also hold an edge in red-zone defense, which is one of the few places where their defense has consistently held up. Opponents have scored touchdowns on only 37.50% of red-zone trips against Tampa Bay, which ranks fourth in the league. The Buccaneers’ defensive EPA/play in the red zone is -0.169, eighth-best in the NFL.
Green Bay hasn’t been nearly as sharp when the field gets tight. The Packers have turned red-zone possessions into touchdowns just 41.67% of the time, ranking 29th. Their red-zone EPA/play is -0.485, which sits 31st out of 32 teams.
That kind of swing inside the 20 can decide a game in a hurry, and it gives Tampa Bay a clear path if it can force Green Bay to settle for field goals.
Special teams give the Buccaneers another advantage. Chase McLaughlin has been perfect this season, making every field goal and extra point he’s attempted. He’s drilled a long of 59 yards and has scored 32 points, which is tied for first in the league.
Green Bay’s kicking game hasn’t matched that standard. Trey Smack has already had a kick blocked this year and has missed an extra point, leaving him at 83.3% on field goals and extra points combined.
For Tampa Bay, that means every drive that gets close has a chance to turn into points. With McLaughlin in place, the Bucs don’t need much room to cash in.
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The other key battles come in coverage, where Tampa Bays cornerbacks will have to keep Christian Watson from making the kind of downfield impact that can flip a game quickly. The middle of the field matters just as much, with the linebackers and safeties responsible for limiting Tucker Kraft and preventing Green Bay from finding easy yards on defining downs. For a Buccaneers defense trying to steady the season, those two assignments may end up being just as telling as whatever happens in the trenches. [Read more 🡒]
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Josiah Trotter and Yaya Diaby are expected to go despite dealing with minor injuries, which at least gives Tampa Bay a little stability in spots where depth has already been tested. Still, this is the kind of availability crunch that can alter a game plan fast, and for a team trying to keep its season on track, the margin for error against Green Bay just got a lot thinner. [Read more 🡒]
Buccaneers Passing Game Just Put Emeka Egbuka At A Crossroads
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Now Baker Mayfield is sidelined by a thumb injury, and the spotlight shifts to rookie undrafted free agent Jalon Daniels as the expected next man up. Daniels flashed enough in the preseason to give the Buccaneers some hope that the offense can find a better rhythm, and with it, a path back to fuller usage for Egbuka. Whether that change restores his role or leaves the passing game searching for answers is the next question hanging over Tampa Bay. [Read more 🡒]