Over the first month of the season, Baker Mayfield looked like he was turning a corner - maybe even turning heads. He played with confidence, command, and just enough swagger to get Tampa Bay fans dreaming a little bigger.
But over the past nine games, that version of Mayfield has vanished. What we’re seeing now is a quarterback struggling to find rhythm, consistency, and answers - even with a fully healthy supporting cast.
Let’s start with the context. Since October 14, Mayfield has made nine starts.
During that stretch, 22 quarterbacks across the league have played at least eight games. Mayfield ranks 18th in passing yards, with just 1,605.
The only quarterbacks below him on that list are Bryce Young, Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa, and Geno Smith - all of whom have either missed time due to injury or, in Tua’s case, were benched. That’s not exactly the company you want to keep when you're supposed to be leading a playoff-caliber offense.
Dig a little deeper, and the numbers paint a more troubling picture. Mayfield is averaging just 178.3 passing yards per game over that span - the lowest mark of any full-time starter in the league.
That’s a staggering drop-off, especially considering the weapons at his disposal. Mike Evans is back.
Chris Godwin is healthy. Jalen McMillan is in the mix.
The running backs are active. The offensive line is intact.
This isn’t a case of a quarterback being left to fend for himself - the pieces are there, but the production isn’t.
Completion percentage? Mayfield is sitting at 58.5% over the past ten weeks - second-worst among the 22 full-time starters, ahead of only Caleb Williams.
His yards per attempt? A league-low 5.7.
Every other starter in that group is above 6.0 YPA, including rookies like Cam Ward (6.0) and veterans like Geno Smith (6.4). That lack of efficiency is a red flag, especially in an offense that’s designed to create quick-read opportunities and vertical shots downfield.
And then there’s the passer rating. Mayfield’s sits at 77.2 - dead last among full-time starters since mid-October.
It’s not just low; it’s five full points behind the next-worst mark, which belongs to Patrick Mahomes (82.7). Yes, even Mahomes is having a down year by his standards, but Mayfield’s decline has been sharper and more prolonged.
Touchdown production hasn’t exactly bailed him out either. Mayfield has thrown 11 touchdown passes in the past nine games, tied for 15th alongside Mahomes, Smith, and Young.
His touchdown rate? Just 3.9%, ranking 19th.
That’s behind nearly every other starter, including rookies like Tyler Shough and Cam Ward.
Turnovers have also crept in. Mayfield’s interception rate is 2.5%, which ranks as the sixth-highest in the league during this stretch.
He’s thrown seven picks since October 14 - tied for the sixth-most in the NFL. That combination of low yardage, low efficiency, and frequent turnovers is a recipe for stalled drives and missed opportunities - and the Bucs have had plenty of both.
And we haven’t even gotten to the win-loss record. Mayfield has just two wins in his last nine starts.
That’s tied for the second-most losses in the league over that stretch, alongside Jaxson Dart and Cam Ward, who are leading rebuilding teams in New York and Tennessee. Only Geno Smith (now with the Raiders) and Jacoby Brissett (with the Cardinals) have more losses - eight each.
That’s a tough pill to swallow for a Tampa Bay team that entered the season with playoff aspirations and a roster that, on paper, looks far more competitive than the bottom-tier teams Mayfield is statistically grouped with.
This isn’t just a cold streak. It’s a prolonged stretch of underperformance that has real implications for the Bucs’ future.
Mayfield’s recent interception against the Panthers - one of the worst of his career - didn’t just cost them a win. It may have cost them a shot at the postseason.
And it forces the front office to ask a difficult question: Is this the quarterback you want leading your franchise forward?
There’s no denying Mayfield has had moments this season where he looked the part. But those moments are growing fewer and further between.
The Bucs still have talent, still have time, and still have a chance to salvage something from this season. But if Mayfield can’t recapture the form he showed early on, Tampa Bay may be forced to re-evaluate their long-term plans at quarterback.
Because right now, the numbers - and the eye test - are telling the same story. And it’s not a good one.