Week 1 of the NFL preseason has already started rolling, and there are three more games on the board tonight with betting angles worth circling.
The cleanest play for me is Atlanta getting the points at home against Denver. Both teams are expected to give their starters a brief run, with Bo Nix the exception, and neither coaching staff offers much of a preseason edge based on past results.
That makes the number feel too steep. The Falcons are being priced like a team that has no business hanging around, but they’ve got real talent on both sides of the ball, including a young group on defense.
Denver, on the other hand, looks a little inflated after a 2026 season in which late-game variance seemed to tilt its way over and over. That perception has carried into August, and laying 4.5 on the road feels like too much.
New York is a different story, but the number still points me the other way. The Jets are 6-point favorites because Aaron Glenn said his starters will play at least part of the opening quarter, while Tampa Bay will sit its top players.
Under normal circumstances, that would make the favorite look attractive. But the reason Glenn is putting his starters out there is because of how poorly the Jets performed in their joint practice with the Buccaneers.
That’s not exactly the kind of spot that inspires confidence in a team already expected to be one of the league’s weakest. I’d rather grab the points with Tampa Bay and see if this stays competitive.
When it comes to preseason betting, coaching history matters as much as almost anything else. Some staffs treat these games like pure auditions; others actually push for the win. Dan Quinn fits the evaluation-first mold, and his track record reflects it with a 7-19-1 against-the-spread record in Atlanta and Washington.
The Miami game brings a different kind of angle. The Dolphins are young, and a lot of those players have something to prove. If Willis gets work in this one, that only helps Miami’s chances of getting out fast.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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