The NFC South might be the NFL’s most wide-open division, but that doesn’t make it especially impressive. In fact, the whole thing looks like a race to the middle, with The Athletic’s predictive analyst Austin Mock projecting every team between six and eight wins and sportsbooks giving each club a real path to the crown.
That kind of spread tells the story. DraftKings has each team sitting somewhere in the 18 to 35 percent range to win the division, and Mock’s numbers are just as cramped: the Buccaneers at 8.0 wins, the Saints at 7.9, the Falcons at 6.9 and the Panthers at 6.7. It’s the definition of a toss-up.
The Buccaneers are the team most people would point to first, and Mock agrees they should enter the season as the favorite. They may have the best quarterback in the division and possibly the best roster overall.
But there’s real doubt hanging over Tampa Bay, especially with longtime stars Mike Evans and Lavonte David gone. Replacing players like that is no small thing.
New Orleans brings its own questions. The Saints had been an appealing team to watch on offense under head coach Kellen Moore, but the outlook is less clean now that first-round rookie wide receiver Jordyn Tyson does not look like he’ll be ready anytime soon.
Atlanta’s issue is simpler, if not any less important: the Falcons still haven’t named a Week 1 starter from their crowded quarterback room.
And then there’s Carolina, which still feels like the least certain of the bunch. The Panthers have enough to stay in the mix - Mock gives them a 19.0 percent shot at the division - but the uncertainty at offensive tackle keeps them from looking like a trustworthy pick.
Last year, the Panthers won the NFC South with only eight victories after a three-way tiebreaker. That same number could easily be enough again. Mock’s power ratings have every team in the division below average and separated by just two points, which is about as tight as a division can get.
In Other News...
Buccaneers May Already Regret Letting Jack Pyburn Get Away
Jack Pyburn did enough in August to make the Buccaneers take notice, even if it did not keep him in Tampa Bay for long. The undrafted rookie flashed all preseason and finished with four sacks, tying for the most among edge defenders, before the Bucs waived him during final roster cuts and watched Kansas City move quickly to claim him for its 53-man roster.
For a team always hunting for young pass-rush help, that kind of departure can linger. Todd Bowles had already singled out Pyburns work ethic and production, which only sharpens the question of whether Tampa Bay gave up on him a little too early, or whether the Chiefs simply got there first and saw enough to make the gamble worthwhile. [Read more 🡒]
Buccaneers Suddenly Have A Real Path Back To The Top
The NFC South does not look especially imposing heading into this season, and that has opened a lane for Tampa Bay to get back where it has spent plenty of time in recent years. ESPNs Dan Graziano sees the Buccaneers as a team that could reclaim the division, pointing to the kind of ingredients that often matter most in a crowded race: a quarterback with something to prove, better health, and a roster that has been reinforced on both sides of the ball.
Baker Mayfields motivation in a contract year sits at the center of that optimism, but it is not the only reason Tampa Bay is drawing notice. The Buccaneers have added talent on offense and defense, and if the health picture improves, they should have a real chance to separate themselves from what is expected to be a weak division. The bigger question is whether all of those pieces come together quickly enough to make the path back to the top look as clear as it does on paper. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Quarterback Battle Just Put New Pressure On Atlanta's Roster
Baker Mayfields situation in Tampa Bay remains one of the more interesting subplots of the offseason, especially with Todd Bowles noting the quarterbacks motivation even before a contract extension is finalized. For the Buccaneers, that kind of stability matters. Mayfield has already become the focal point of the offense, and Bowles comments only reinforce how central he is to what Tampa Bay wants to build heading into the next stretch of team planning.
Across the division, the Falcons are juggling a different kind of quarterback conversation, with general manager Ian Cunningham talking through the teams current situation and the roster moves that have come with it. The broader NFC South picture also includes Carolina, where Dan Morgan has been addressing roster commitments, injuries and practice squad decisions, a reminder that every team in the division is still sorting out the same basic question: who is ready now, and who still has more to prove before the picture settles? [Read more 🡒]