The Buccaneers may have found the soft spot in Pittsburgh’s offense, and it starts with coverage. According to Shayne Kubas, a contributor for Still Curtain, the Steelers have had a long-running issue beating man coverage, and Tampa Bay could press that advantage if Todd Bowles dials it up more than usual on Sunday.
That’s only part of the picture, though. Kubas said the Steelers’ passing game is likely to be thin with three wide receivers out this week, which could push Aaron Rodgers toward a heavier dose of tight ends and quick throws. He also pointed to Jaylen Warren as a likely central piece of the game plan.
“I don't expect the passing game to perform particularly well against the Bucs, and Rodgers' past performances against them certainly don't make me feel any better. I think his success or failure will come down to how much they lean on the tight ends in the passing game, especially with three of their wide receivers out this week. I won't predict a meltdown, but it could be hard to watch at times.”
That tight end usage could matter a lot. Tampa Bay has struggled to defend the position, giving up four catches for 41 yards per game, and Pittsburgh has Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington available. Kubas said he hopes they get featured heavily, though he added that Rodgers and Mike McCarthy prefer 11 personnel and a shotgun-heavy approach.
The Steelers writer also expects Bowles to make life difficult for Rodgers with the kind of disguised looks that have bothered him before. Rodgers has thrown 11 interceptions in seven career games against Tampa Bay, and two of his six career three-interception games came at Raymond James Stadium. His passer rating against the Buccaneers is 79.4, his second-lowest mark against any opponent.
“I think that, for better or worse, Mike McCarthy and Rodgers want the offense to operate a certain way. That doesn't mean preparing for Bowles' defense isn't a challenge, but I expect we will see many of the same quick throws, deep passes to try and loosen up the coverage, and a heavy dose of Jaylen Warren. Whether that will work or not is the question.”
Kubas said he does not expect a vintage Rodgers outing, and he tied that to Tampa Bay’s defense as much as Rodgers’ history against the team.
On the other side of the ball, the Steelers see a chance to attack a very different kind of weakness. The Buccaneers are starting an undrafted rookie at quarterback, and Kubas said that should be a clear advantage for Pittsburgh’s defense. He noted that Jalon Daniels played well against the Cowboys in Week 5, but said facing that defense is not the same as facing the Steelers.
“The very fact that the Bucs are starting an undrafted rookie at QB (who I thought should have been a Day 3 pick, for what it's worth) should be a big win for the Steelers. Jalon Daniels was quite good against the Cowboys in Week 5, but facing that defense compared to Pittsburgh's is a different story. With all of the veterans that the Steelers have on that unit, they should be able to create havoc for the young QB to have to deal with.”
For Tampa Bay, the path is pretty clear: make Rodgers uncomfortable, force Pittsburgh into tough throws, and keep that offense from settling in. For the Steelers, the emphasis looks like it will be on protecting their quarterback, leaning on the tight ends, and trying to survive Bowles’ pressure-heavy approach.
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