The NFC South has been messy from the jump, but that chaos has kept both Atlanta and Tampa Bay alive. Neither team got the start it wanted, yet both are still very much in the mix when the Falcons visit the Buccaneers on Sunday with first place on the line.
Atlanta is 3-4 and Tampa Bay sits at 2-5, but the division has been unpredictable enough that neither record has closed the door. Two of the past four NFC South champions have finished with losing records, and just last season Carolina, Atlanta and Tampa Bay all ended up 8-9.
Carolina won the division on a tiebreaker, and after a 3-3 start this year, it still sits on top. The Falcons and Buccaneers are both chasing momentum in a division that has not exactly demanded perfection.
Atlanta’s surge has come with Michael Penix Jr. back in the lineup and the offense changing shape around him. The Falcons lost two straight to open the year, including that 31-point defeat at Carolina, but they’ve won three of five since then.
Penix, who missed significant time last season with a knee injury, delivered his best recent outing in a 29-20 win over previously undefeated San Francisco, tossing three touchdown passes without an interception. Since he took over as the starter, Atlanta leads the NFL in scoring and has leaned into a bruising, physical run game.
There’s also a homecoming angle for Penix. He grew up in nearby Dade City and played high school football in Tampa, which adds a little extra color to an already important game for Atlanta.
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, spent the first month of the season digging out of an 0-4 hole. Lately, though, the Buccaneers have started to find their footing behind a revived defense and a heavy ground attack.
Baker Mayfield came back after missing three games with a dislocated thumb and helped spark a 43-13 win over Carolina, a game in which Tampa Bay rushed for 258 yards. The Buccaneers have now won two of their past three, and the running game has been the engine, with 49 carries against the Panthers and 241 rushing yards against Dallas.
The headliner inside the matchup is simple enough: Penix against a Tampa Bay defense that has started to heat up. Penix has thrown nine touchdown passes with only one interception since taking over, and he’s led Atlanta to a 3-2 record in that stretch. On the other side, the Buccaneers have ramped up their pass rush, piling up 10 sacks over the last two games after managing just six over the first five weeks.
That matters because Atlanta has had protection issues. The Falcons are tied for the league low in quarterback pressures allowed with 62, so the battle up front could decide how much freedom Penix gets to keep the offense rolling.
A few numbers tell the rest of the story. The last six meetings between these teams have all been decided by six points or fewer.
Bijan Robinson leads the NFL with 704 rushing yards and has posted at least 100 scrimmage yards in five games. Drake London leads the NFC with 256 yards after the catch, while Kyle Pitts has scored four touchdowns in his past three outings.
Tampa Bay has its own ground threat in Bucky Irving, who is averaging 4.7 yards per carry with 558 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Linebacker Yaya Diaby is the pass-rush leader and is coming off a three-sack game against Carolina. The Buccaneers also bring the league’s third-ranked total defense into the matchup, allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards and under 300 total yards per game.
Sunday’s game kicks off at 1:00 PM EST on Fox, with Tampa Bay listed as a 2.5-point favorite. Atlanta is 3-4 against the spread, while Tampa Bay is 2-5.
The Falcons beat the 49ers 29-20 last week, and the Buccaneers rolled past the Panthers 43-13. The teams last met on December 11, 2025, in Tampa, when Atlanta won 29-28.
The Falcons lead the all-time series 33-32.
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Bucs Suddenly Face A Tough Decision As Trade Buzz Builds
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One name that has surfaced in that broader conversation is YaYa Diaby, whose contract situation gives the Bucs a real choice to make. If Tampa Bay believes the best move is to turn a potential departure into draft capital, the front office could listen, but the longer this drags on, the more difficult it becomes to balance present pass-rush needs with the longer-term value of keeping assets in hand. [Read more 🡒]