No NFL award race feels more open year to year than Defensive Rookie of the Year, and 2026 is shaping up that way again.
Last season, Browns linebacker Carson Schwesinger was the surprise winner after beginning the year well off the odds board. The second-round pick from UCLA finished with 67 solo tackles, 2.5 sacks and two interceptions on his way to the award.
This time around, Rueben Bain Jr. of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers opens as the +470 favorite, which works out to an implied probability of 17.54%.
Bain Jr., the former Miami Hurricane taken with the 15th overall pick, is expected to step right in as Tampa Bay’s top pass-rush threat. That’s a role the Buccaneers badly needed filled after a season in which that area left a lot to be desired.
Behind Bain Jr. on the odds board are David Bailey of the New York Jets, Caleb Down of the Dallas Cowboys, Sonny Styles of the Washington Commanders and Arvell Reese of the New York Giants.
The award’s recent history shows just how many different paths can lead to the trophy. Schwesinger won it as a lineback last year. Jared Verse and Will Anderson took it as pass rushers in the two seasons before that, while Sauce Gardner won it as a cornerback in 2022.
If Downs can pull it off, he’d become the first safety to win the award since Mark Carrier in 1990.
As always, the market figures to shift quickly once the season gets going. Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
In Other News...
Buccaneers May Already Regret Letting Jack Pyburn Get Away
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Now Tampa Bay has to watch him continue his rookie season in Kansas City after the Chiefs claimed him off waivers. For a Bucs team always looking for affordable pass-rush help, it is the kind of move that can linger a little longer than a typical roster decision, especially when a young edge rusher already showed he could make disruptive plays against NFL competition. [Read more 🡒]
Buccaneers Suddenly Have A Real Path Back To The Top
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For Tampa Bay, the appeal is not just that the division looks softer, but that the ingredients for a rebound are all in place at once. Mayfields motivation matters, the teams overall health matters, and the fresh talent around him matters too, especially for a group trying to turn last seasons momentum into something more durable. The question now is whether those pieces come together quickly enough to make the Buccaneers the team everyone else in the South is chasing. [Read more 🡒]
Bowles Sends Clear Message As Mayfield Pressure Builds In Tampa
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Jason Licht has also signaled that the team will respect the deadline tied to the contract talks, but the larger priority remains getting ready for the start of the season. For Mayfield, the pressure is part of the job at this point, and for the Bucs it is about balancing the business side with the hope that continuity on offense can keep him settled when the games begin. [Read more 🡒]