The Buccaneers didn’t just catch a break on the schedule - they landed in a spot that gives them a real shot to take control of the NFC South again.
Tampa Bay enters this season with the 22nd-hardest strength of schedule, and that matters because the division around them is not exactly setting the world on fire. Last year, the Buccaneers missed the playoffs for the first time since 2023 after injuries wrecked a 6-2 start and sent them tumbling to a 2-7 finish. This time, the expectation is that a healthier roster can change the script.
The numbers behind the schedule back up the optimism. Tampa Bay’s opponents posted a combined 49.1 win percentage last year, and the weakness of the NFC South helps soften the overall path.
Every team in the division - the Buccaneers, Panthers, Saints and Falcons - finished below .500. Tampa Bay, Carolina and Atlanta all ended 8-9, while New Orleans was last at 6-11.
That leaves the division wide open, and the Buccaneers have a clear chance to pile up another crown. One more title would give Tampa Bay the most NFC South division championships.
The early stretch will still ask plenty of questions. Tampa Bay opens on the road against Cincinnati next Sunday, and that game is no cakewalk.
Joe Burrow missed most of the season with a grade three turf toe injury, which gave Jake Browning, whom the Buccaneers after preseason, a chance to step in. The Bengals also made a major move by trading for Dexter Lawrence, a big addition to the middle of their pass rush.
Lawrence had just 0.5 sacks last season after putting up nine in 2024.
After that, the Buccaneers come home for three straight games against the Browns, Vikings and Packers. Cleveland didn’t reach the playoffs last year, but the team added help at wide receiver and on the offensive line through the draft. Deshaun Watson remains the starting quarterback, and the source material points to his ability to make precise throws, especially downfield to speedy targets.
Minnesota brings a dangerous receiving duo in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, so Tampa Bay’s secondary will have its hands full. The Vikings also added Kyler Murray in free agency on a one-year deal, and his dual-threat ability is described as a different kind of threat than J.J. McCarthy offers.
The home stretch of that three-game run looks even tougher with Jordan Love, Micah Parsons and the Packers visiting Tampa Bay. Love has established himself as an MVP-caliber quarterback, though Green Bay will have to adjust after losing leading receiver Romeo Doubs to the New England Patriots.
The Cowboys also showed more investment in their roster by adding defensive depth in the first round of this year’s draft, selecting Ohio State’s Caleb Downs and UCF’s Malachi Lawrence. Those picks were made to bring more balance in pass rush and coverage, two areas the team struggled with most last season.
So yes, the Buccaneers have a favorable draw on paper. But the schedule still includes plenty of difficult matchups, and Tampa Bay will need to earn every step if it wants to make a return trip to the playoffs.
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Todd Bowles Is Pushing A Bucs Defensive Reset Fans Will Notice
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Robinson, entering his 11th NFL season, fits that mission as much for the way he leads as for anything that shows up in a box score. In Bowles view, the reset is about changing the standard from the inside out, with the defensive front helping define what this next version of the Bucs is supposed to look and feel like. [Read more 🡒]