Bucs at a Crossroads: 2026 Could Define the Future of Todd Bowles and Baker Mayfield in Tampa
After a rough finish to the 2025 season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are staring down a pivotal year - one that could determine the futures of both head coach Todd Bowles and quarterback Baker Mayfield. The Bucs dropped seven of their last nine games, squandering a golden opportunity to win a weak NFC South where no team even finished above .500. That late-season collapse has left fans frustrated and the franchise facing some tough questions heading into 2026.
For now, both Bowles and Mayfield are still in the building. But how long that remains the case depends on what happens over the next 12 months.
Let’s start with Mayfield. The former No. 1 overall pick is entering the final year of a three-year, $100 million deal - a contract that, in today’s quarterback market, actually looks like a bargain.
Despite the Bucs’ late-season slide, Mayfield’s price tag is modest compared to what other quarterbacks are making. In fact, 18 QBs are earning more annually, including some names that raise eyebrows.
Take Geno Smith, for example, who led the NFL’s worst team in 2025. Or Kirk Cousins, who only got the nod in Atlanta after Michael Penix Jr. went down with an injury.
Then there’s Deshaun Watson, whose departure from Cleveland opened the door for Mayfield to be shipped out - a move the Browns might quietly regret. And Tua Tagovailoa, whose flashes of brilliance have too often been overshadowed by injuries and inconsistency in Miami.
Even Mayfield’s harshest critics would probably take him over that group right now.
Still, Mayfield’s future in Tampa is anything but guaranteed. If the Bucs stumble again and Mayfield regresses, the franchise could decide it’s time to hit reset - not just at quarterback, but on the sidelines, too.
That brings us to Bowles, who’s quietly climbed the ranks among the most successful coaches in Bucs history. He currently sits fourth all-time in franchise wins - third if you set aside John McKay’s 44-88-1 record.
With 23 more victories, Bowles would surpass Jon Gruden as the winningest coach in team history. That’s not out of reach if he sticks around for two more seasons.
But getting there likely hinges on what happens this year.
Mayfield, for his part, has made a strong case as the best quarterback the Bucs have had not named Tom Brady. And while that says plenty about Tampa Bay’s checkered QB history, it also speaks to the stability Mayfield has brought to the position since arriving three seasons ago. He’s been tough, productive, and - at times - the spark the Bucs needed to stay competitive.
The Bowles-Mayfield pairing has worked. The question is whether it can take the next step.
If Tampa can bounce back in 2026 - win double-digit games, reclaim the NFC South, and make a postseason run - the reward could be significant. Mayfield would be in line for a long-term extension, and Bowles could solidify his place as the franchise’s top head coach.
But that’s the best-case scenario. And for it to come true, the Bucs have to deliver this season.
There’s no more room for late-season fades. No more missed chances in a winnable division.
2026 isn’t just another year in Tampa Bay - it’s a defining one.