The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have plenty to clean up, but the offense’s biggest issue is staring them right in the face: this group is not pushing the ball downfield with any real consistency.
That showed up again in the Bucs’ 17-14 loss to the Green Bay Packers in Week 4. UDFA rookie Jalon Daniels was always going to have a rough first start, but Tampa Bay didn’t exactly make life easier on him. Through four weeks, the offense has simply not produced the kind of explosive snaps that change games.
Explosive plays can be measured a few different ways depending on the scheme, but the standard definition is straightforward enough: a run of 10 or more yards, or a pass of 20 or more. By that measure, Tampa Bay has been one of the league’s least productive teams.
According to NFL data analyst Sam Hoppen, the Buccaneers rank 30th in the NFL in explosive plays overall at 5.0%. They’re 25th in explosive run plays at 8.3% and 30th in receiving explosive plays at 2.8%.
Those numbers matter because explosive plays are one of the easiest ways for an offense to stay ahead of the chains and keep defenses uncomfortable. The Buccaneers’ defense has done its part, sitting in the top 10 in preventing them. The offense, though, has not matched that standard.
One reason may be how the passing game is being funneled. Tampa Bay has had trouble getting the ball to its wide receivers, with tight end Cade Otton leading the team with 23 targets. That tells the story of an offense searching for reliable production but not finding much downfield juice.
The Bucs are also leaning heavily on throws behind the line of scrimmage. They’re tied for eighth in the league with 28 passes behind the line, and that’s not the kind of profile that usually leads to big gains. It’s safe to say that approach isn’t helping the explosive-play numbers.
The answer may be in how Tampa Bay uses its playmakers. Getting the ball to deep threat Ted Hurst more often could help stretch the field, while the run game may need more from Bucky Irving and Kenny Gainwell. Sean Tucker could be part of that conversation, too, if the Bucs decide he deserves more carries.
Next up is a Thursday night road trip to face the Dallas Cowboys at 8:15.
In Other News...
Buccaneers' Skid Just Raised An Ugly Question About Baker Mayfield
The Buccaneers four-game slide has put a spotlight on a much bigger problem than one bad Sunday, and the latest loss only sharpened the conversation around the offense. In a 17-14 defeat to the Packers, Tampa Bay had to turn to rookie Jalon Daniels for his NFL debut with Baker Mayfield sidelined by injury, and while the result was rocky, it also underscored how little breathing room this team has created for itself during the skid.
Daniels finished with two interceptions and a touchdown, but the performance did not look dramatically worse than what the Buccaneers have been getting overall, which is where the real discomfort starts to settle in. If the offense continues to sputter no matter who is taking snaps, the issue may be less about the quarterback room and more about the coaching and structure around it, leaving Tampa Bay with an uncomfortable question as the losses pile up. [Read more 🡒]
Cowboys Have A Thursday Night Edge Fans Will Want To Track
A Thursday night trip to Dallas already comes with enough attention, but the Buccaneers are also walking into it with Baker Mayfield sidelined and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels set to make the start. Tampa Bay will be trying to steady itself against a Cowboys team that is coming off a win and has the kind of established passing game that can make a primetime game look very different by halftime.
Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb loom as the obvious problems for Tampa Bay to solve, especially with the Cowboys carrying the edge in the betting market. For fans tracking the matchup beyond the final score, the more interesting wrinkle is how the prop market and the defensive rankings line up with a Buccaneers offense forced into a different shape than the one it expected entering Week 5. [Read more 🡒]
Bruce Arians Sounds Off As Bucs Season Reaches A Breaking Point
The Buccaneers have stumbled into October at 0-4, a start that leaves almost no margin for error and puts their playoff hopes under immediate pressure. Bruce Arians, now serving as a Senior Football Consultant, still believes there is a path forward, and he pointed to the coming month as a critical stretch for a team dealing with major injuries, a tough slate and very little early momentum.
What has kept Tampa Bay from being buried entirely is the defense, which has stayed strong by advanced metrics even as the offense has struggled to find consistency. A big part of that offensive issue has been the play up front, where the line has not delivered at the level the Buccaneers need, and until that changes, the season is likely to keep hovering at a breaking point. [Read more 🡒]