Thursday night in Week 5 has the look of a game that could go either way in a hurry. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys arrive at opposite points on both sides of the ball: Dallas sits just outside the top 10 in yards per game on offense, while Tampa Bay is 28th. Flip it around on defense, and the Buccaneers have allowed the fourth-fewest yards per game, while the Cowboys have given up the third-most.
That kind of split makes this one tough to pin down. It could turn into a slog.
It could also turn into a track meet. With that in mind, here are four bold predictions for the first game of Week 5.
Bucky Irving is in line for a big night on the ground, and the matchup points that way. Dallas has been awful against the run, allowing the second-most rushing yards through four weeks.
That should push Tampa Bay toward leaning on its rushing attack early, especially with the starting quarterback sidelined. Backup Jalon Daniels has had a rough stretch, throwing an interception on three pass attempts in Week 3 and two in Week 4.
The Buccaneers will want to keep things simple and establish the run right away.
Prediction: Bucky Irving takes advantage of Dallas’ run prevention, finishing with 175 yards rushing and two touchdowns.
On the other side, CeeDee Lamb has a chance to keep rolling. Tampa Bay’s secondary has handled plenty of the field well, but it has also given up explosive plays to receivers who can stretch it.
Over the first four weeks, Tee Higgins, Denzel Boston, Jordan Addison, and Christian Watson all averaged at least 15.7 yards per catch, with Higgins, Boston, and Addison all clearing 18. That opens the door for Lamb to do damage in a big way.
Prediction: CeeDee Lamb has success as a serious threat and finishes with 160 receiving yards and one touchdown.
Special teams could also deliver a headline moment. Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey has a massive leg, and Dallas has shown no hesitation about using it in fourth-down territory.
Aubrey already owns a career long of 65 yards, and the next step would be a 68-yarder to tie Cam Little’s 2025 record. This feels like the spot where Brian Schottenheimer lets him try it rather than just take a knee before halftime.
Prediction: On the last play of the first half, Dallas Cowboys kicker Brand Aubrey nails a 68-yard field goal, tying the NFL record.
If all of that happens, Dallas may be headed for a huge offensive number. The Buccaneers’ defense has been sturdy overall, but the issue here could be time of possession.
If Tampa Bay’s offense can’t stay on the field, the defense may wear down fast. With Jalon Daniels struggling in his first start, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys could control the game more than they have in any of their first four outings, piling up touchdowns before halftime and pushing the total to a season-best mark.
Prediction: The Buccaneers’ defense will not have an extended stay on the bench, leading to fatigue. The Cowboys’ offense will exploit their tired opponents, scoring seven touchdowns.
In Other News...
Buccaneers' Skid Just Raised An Ugly Question About Baker Mayfield
The Buccaneers four-game slide has put a spotlight on a much bigger problem than one bad Sunday, and the latest loss only sharpened the conversation around the offense. In a 17-14 defeat to the Packers, Tampa Bay had to turn to rookie Jalon Daniels for his NFL debut with Baker Mayfield sidelined by injury, and while the result was rocky, it also underscored how little breathing room this team has created for itself during the skid.
Daniels finished with two interceptions and a touchdown, but the performance did not look dramatically worse than what the Buccaneers have been getting overall, which is where the real discomfort starts to settle in. If the offense continues to sputter no matter who is taking snaps, the issue may be less about the quarterback room and more about the coaching and structure around it, leaving Tampa Bay with an uncomfortable question as the losses pile up. [Read more 🡒]
Cowboys Have A Thursday Night Edge Fans Will Want To Track
A Thursday night trip to Dallas already comes with enough attention, but the Buccaneers are also walking into it with Baker Mayfield sidelined and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels set to make the start. Tampa Bay will be trying to steady itself against a Cowboys team that is coming off a win and has the kind of established passing game that can make a primetime game look very different by halftime.
Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb loom as the obvious problems for Tampa Bay to solve, especially with the Cowboys carrying the edge in the betting market. For fans tracking the matchup beyond the final score, the more interesting wrinkle is how the prop market and the defensive rankings line up with a Buccaneers offense forced into a different shape than the one it expected entering Week 5. [Read more 🡒]
Bruce Arians Sounds Off As Bucs Season Reaches A Breaking Point
The Buccaneers have stumbled into October at 0-4, a start that leaves almost no margin for error and puts their playoff hopes under immediate pressure. Bruce Arians, now serving as a Senior Football Consultant, still believes there is a path forward, and he pointed to the coming month as a critical stretch for a team dealing with major injuries, a tough slate and very little early momentum.
What has kept Tampa Bay from being buried entirely is the defense, which has stayed strong by advanced metrics even as the offense has struggled to find consistency. A big part of that offensive issue has been the play up front, where the line has not delivered at the level the Buccaneers need, and until that changes, the season is likely to keep hovering at a breaking point. [Read more 🡒]