Buccaneers Regain Control of NFC South After Wild Weekend - But the Work’s Just Beginning
After watching a 14-point lead slip away on Thursday night, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looked like a team teetering on the edge. Their grip on the NFC South had loosened, and with just three games left in the regular season, the margin for error was razor-thin.
Then Sunday happened.
Thanks to a surprising twist - the New Orleans Saints upsetting the Carolina Panthers - the Bucs suddenly find themselves back in the driver’s seat. It’s a lifeline they didn’t necessarily earn this week, but one they absolutely needed.
With the division race tightening and playoff dreams hanging in the balance, Tampa Bay now controls its own destiny. The question is: can they capitalize?
The Saints’ Win Gives Tampa Bay New Life
Two weeks ago, a loss to New Orleans knocked Tampa Bay out of first place and sent the team into a tailspin. But the Saints’ win over Carolina on Sunday reshuffled the deck.
Suddenly, the Bucs are back on top of the NFC South standings - and with three games to go, they’re no longer chasing. They’re leading.
It’s not a comfortable lead, but it’s a lead nonetheless. And in December, that’s all that matters.
Playoff Picture: Bucs Hold the Cards - for Now
Let’s be clear: Tampa Bay isn’t exactly playing like a team destined for January football. The offense has sputtered during the worst stretch of the Baker Mayfield era, and the frustration was visible after the loss to Atlanta.
But the beauty of the NFL’s playoff structure - especially in a division like the NFC South - is that you don’t need to be perfect. You just need to be better than the rest of your division.
And right now, the Bucs have multiple paths to clinch that elusive playoff spot.
Path #1: Win the Next Two, Lock It Up Early
This is the cleanest route - and the one head coach Todd Bowles and his staff are surely emphasizing.
If Tampa Bay beats the Panthers next week and then follows it up with a win over the Dolphins in Week 17, they’ll clinch the NFC South. That would render Week 18’s rematch with Carolina meaningless in terms of playoff positioning - a huge benefit for a team that’s been dealing with injuries all season long.
In that scenario, the Bucs could rest starters, get healthier, and enter the postseason with momentum and a little extra gas in the tank.
Path #2: Drop One, Still Have a Shot
Now, if the Bucs lose to the Panthers next Sunday, things get trickier - but not impossible.
A loss would hand control of the division back to Carolina, at least temporarily. But if Tampa Bay bounces back with a win against the Dolphins and then takes care of business in a Week 18 rematch with the Panthers, they’d still have a shot at the division crown.
It’s not ideal - especially considering how inconsistent the team has been - but the math still works in their favor. The key is not dropping two of the next three.
One stumble? Manageable.
Two? Likely fatal.
Path #3: Help from Seattle Could Seal It in Week 17
Here’s where things get interesting.
If Tampa Bay beats the Panthers next week but loses to the Dolphins in Week 17, they could still clinch the division - but they’d need some help. Specifically, they’d need the Seattle Seahawks to beat Carolina when the Panthers host them in two weeks.
That’s not out of the question. Seattle will likely be in the thick of the NFC playoff race and won’t be taking any games lightly. Plus, the Seahawks will be coming off a 10-day break after their Thursday night matchup with the Rams, meaning they’ll be well-rested heading into that Carolina game.
If Seattle takes care of business and Tampa Bay handles its own in Week 16, the Bucs could lock up the division before Week 18 even kicks off.
Bottom Line: It’s All in Front of Them
The Buccaneers may not look like a playoff team right now, but the path is clear. Win the next two, and they’re in.
Drop one, and they’ll need to fight harder. Drop two, and the season could slip away.
But for all the ups and downs this year - the blown leads, the missed opportunities, the public frustration - Tampa Bay still has something most teams in the league would kill for in mid-December: control.
They don’t need help from the scoreboard. They don’t need to scoreboard-watch. They just need to win.
And if they can channel the urgency and fire they showed after the Atlanta loss, the Bucs might just find themselves peaking at the perfect time.