Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: Week 17 Matchup Carries High Stakes for Tampa Bay, Growing Pains for Miami
Week 17 brings us a matchup that, on paper, might look like just another late-December game between two sub-.500 teams. But dig a little deeper, and Sunday’s clash between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium is anything but meaningless-at least not for the Bucs. While Miami has officially been eliminated from playoff contention, Tampa Bay’s postseason hopes are still flickering, and they’ll need a strong showing to keep that flame alive.
Tampa Bay comes into this one at 7-8, clinging to playoff dreams and favored by 5.5 points despite a brutal second-half slide. After a promising 6-2 start, the Bucs have dropped six of their last seven, a collapse that’s raised real questions about this team’s identity and future.
The Dolphins, sitting at 6-9, are in the midst of a quarterback transition, having benched Tua Tagovailoa and handed the reins to rookie Quinn Ewers. With both franchises at a crossroads, this game is about more than records-it's about trajectory.
Mayfield’s Moment
For Baker Mayfield, this is a gut-check game. The veteran quarterback has put together a solid statistical season-23 touchdowns to just 8 interceptions, a 90.0 passer rating, and over 3,100 passing yards-but the Bucs’ recent skid has cast a shadow over those numbers. He’s been efficient, especially at home, but now he needs to translate that into road success when it matters most.
Mayfield’s best outing of the year came in Week 5 against Seattle, when he lit up the Seahawks for 379 yards and two touchdowns while completing nearly 88% of his passes. That version of Mayfield-the one who’s decisive, accurate, and in rhythm-is exactly what Tampa Bay needs to see on Sunday.
And the matchup couldn’t be more favorable. Miami’s secondary has been a sieve all season, giving up a league-worst 71.49% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. They’ve struggled particularly against offenses that utilize timing-based route concepts and vertical spacing-exactly the kind of attack Tampa Bay is built to run when things are clicking.
With Mike Evans fully back in the mix, Chris Godwin healthy, and rookie Emeka Egbuka emerging as a reliable third option, Mayfield has the weapons to exploit Miami’s coverage issues. If he’s sharp early, expect Tampa Bay to convert red zone trips into touchdowns rather than settling for field goals. The Bucs have scored touchdowns on just 54.55% of their red zone possessions this year-a number that needs to tick up if they’re going to make a serious playoff push.
Mike Evans: The X-Factor
Mike Evans’ return from a six-game injury absence has been a game-changer for Tampa Bay’s offense. In his first game back against Atlanta, he made an immediate impact-six catches, 132 yards, and he did it while playing just over half the offensive snaps.
That wasn’t just a welcome-back performance. That was Evans reminding everyone that when he’s on the field, he’s still one of the most dominant receivers in the league.
Even in a limited season, Evans has hauled in 25 catches for 303 yards and two touchdowns across six games. But the real telling stat?
Over the last two weeks, Mayfield has targeted Evans on 35% of his throws. That’s not just chemistry-that’s a quarterback leaning hard on his alpha receiver when the season is on the line.
The Dolphins’ secondary just gave up 183 yards and a touchdown to Bengals wideouts last week, and they’ve struggled all season to contain physical outside receivers. Evans, with his size, catch radius, and ability to win 50/50 balls, presents a nightmare matchup.
Look for Tampa Bay to feature him early and often, especially in the red zone. If the Bucs are going to get their offense back on track, Evans will be the catalyst.
Don’t be surprised if he crosses the 130-yard mark and finds the end zone at least once.
Rookie Trial by Fire
On the other side of the field, Miami is rolling with seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers, who made his NFL debut last week against Cincinnati. The stat line was a mixed bag: 20-of-30 passing for 260 yards, but two interceptions and a 66.0 passer rating told the real story. There were flashes of arm talent, sure, but also the kind of rookie mistakes that tend to get magnified against opportunistic defenses.
And while Tampa Bay’s defense ranks near the bottom in overall efficiency (30th), they’ve been surprisingly effective at generating turnovers and pressuring the quarterback. The Bucs have recorded 35 sacks this season and thrive on creating chaos-especially for young quarterbacks who haven’t yet learned how to read disguised coverages or navigate collapsing pockets.
That’s where Ewers could find himself in trouble. His biggest issues in college-decision-making under pressure and processing speed when his first read is taken away-are now being tested at the highest level.
Tampa Bay’s defense leans heavily on zone looks and post-snap movement, designed to confuse inexperienced QBs. If Ewers can’t adjust quickly, it could be a long afternoon.
The Dolphins’ offensive line hasn’t exactly helped matters either. Protection has been shaky, particularly on the interior, and that’s where Tampa Bay’s pressure schemes love to strike.
Expect the Bucs to dial up interior blitzes and force Ewers into second-and-long situations where he has to read the full field-something he’s not yet equipped to do at an NFL level. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him toss multiple interceptions as the Buccaneers defense looks to capitalize on rookie growing pains.
What’s at Stake
For Tampa Bay, this is a must-win game. A loss would all but extinguish their playoff hopes, while a win keeps them in the hunt heading into the final week.
For Miami, it’s about evaluating the future. Can Ewers show enough to justify another look in 2026?
Can the defense tighten up after a season of inconsistency?
Mike Evans 6 REC, 132 YDS vs ATL Tonight.
— Football Performances (@NFLPerformances) December 12, 2025
Welcome back Mike.pic.twitter.com/UXIhMVwfFk https://t.co/vccewbUtX6
But make no mistake: the pressure is squarely on the Buccaneers. They’ve got the more experienced quarterback, the healthier roster, and the clear mismatch in the passing game. Now it’s time to execute.
If Mayfield plays clean football, Evans dominates the perimeter, and the defense rattles Ewers into mistakes, Tampa Bay should walk out of Miami with a season-saving win. But if they let this one slip, the questions about where this team is headed will only grow louder.