The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone from early-season punchline to a team nobody can ignore, and their defense is a big reason why. Todd Bowles has his group playing sharp football, Tampa Bay has won three of its last four, and the Bucs are right back in the NFC South race.
Now comes the kind of game that tells you whether that surge is real. On Sunday night in Week 9, Tampa Bay heads to Soldier Field to face the Chicago Bears in an NFC matchup with major playoff implications for both teams.
Chicago has been getting plenty of attention after its blockbuster trade for All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons, and Simmons made a huge splash in the Bears’ 34-17 win over the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night. But the Bears’ offense is still the engine. Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson have become one of the best quarterback-coach pairings in football, and Chicago’s attack remains one of the league’s top units.
That sets up a strength-on-strength battle, because Tampa Bay’s defense has quietly climbed into elite territory over the last few weeks. The Bucs were dominant in Week 8, picking off Michael Penix Jr. four times in a 16-0 win in a monsoon, a game in which Baker Mayfield didn’t complete a single pass.
The Bears want to build everything around the run game, and that’s been the foundation of Ben Johnson’s offense. Chicago ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards per game, trailing only Tampa Bay, and that ground game is how the Bears stay on schedule.
D’Andre Swift has been the main driver there. Kyle Monangai and Swift usually give Chicago one of the better backfield duos in the league, but Monangai has been out with a toe injury and could miss another game Sunday.
Johnson’s run game leans heavily on outside zone and pin-and-pull concepts, and the numbers back that up. Chicago has been average on runs between the tackles, posting a -0.12 EPA per rush and a 38.2% success rate on those plays, according to Next Gen Stats. Outside the tackles, though, the Bears have been much more effective, with a 43.3% success rate and a +0.01 EPA per rush.
That’s where Tampa Bay’s front, and especially Vita Vea, comes into the picture. Vea remains one of the best run-stuffing nose tackles of his generation, and the Buccaneers have made life miserable for opposing ground games ever since drafting him in 2018.
The Bucs’ run defense numbers are strong across the board. They are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game, rank sixth in stuff rate at a little over 20%, and sit third in the NFL in EPA per rush allowed at -0.13, per Next Gen Stats.
Inside runs are where Tampa Bay has been especially punishing. Against those plays, Bowles’ defense is tied for second in EPA per rush allowed, second in yards per rush allowed and fifth in stuff rate. That all traces back to Vea’s presence in the middle.
Chicago may find more room when it gets the ball wide, though. The Buccaneers are 15th in yards per rush allowed on outside runs at 4.4 and 16th in EPA per rush allowed at -0.06 in those situations. That lines up neatly with where the Bears have been most comfortable, so Johnson should keep coming back to that area.
Then there’s Caleb Williams, who has been playing at an elite level. He ranks third in the NFL in EPA per dropback at +0.22, and even with the time he missed because of a hamstring injury, his impact has been obvious.
Williams looks more settled in Johnson’s offense this season and has been willing to push the ball downfield when it’s there. His completion percentage is up over 70%, a notable jump after being a major talking point all summer.
He has also kept the improvisational element that made him such a special prospect. Williams’ time to throw is 3.24 seconds, the highest in the NFL, and he’s using that extra time to extend plays, slide in the pocket and create throwing lanes late in the down.
That habit could be a problem against a Tampa Bay defense that has been ruthless when quarterbacks hold the ball. On passes where quarterbacks have taken more than 2.5 seconds to throw this season, the Buccaneers are allowing -0.33 EPA per dropback, which ranks fourth in the league.
Bowles’ pressure package is a big part of that. The Bucs blitz at a 40.2% clip, third-highest in the NFL, and their time to pressure of 2.52 seconds is the fourth-lowest in the league. When Tampa decides to come after a quarterback, it gets there fast.
Still, the blitz may not be the cleanest answer against Williams. He has handled pressure well this season, going 44-for-75 for 560 yards, four touchdowns and one interception against the blitz, with a +0.10 EPA per dropback that ranks eighth in the NFL.
Bowles has never been shy about sticking to his defensive identity, and that approach has helped drag Tampa Bay back into the NFC South conversation. On Sunday night, the key question is simple: can the Buccaneers heat up Williams without getting burned? That matchup could decide the game.
In Other News...
Alex Anzalone Is Becoming A Much Bigger Deal For This Bucs Defense
Alex Anzalones rise has become one of the more notable developments for Tampa Bays defense, and Week 8 only sharpened that picture. The inside linebacker was recognized as the NFC Defensive Player of the Week after a standout outing that included two interceptions, six combined tackles, a tackle for loss and two passes defensed, a performance that fit right into a Buccaneers defense that led the league in takeaways and interceptions during the week.
Anzalones three interceptions on the season have him tied for second in the NFL, a strong marker for a player who has steadily become more central to what Tampa Bay is doing on that side of the ball. The honor also carries some added weight for the Buccaneers, since it is the first weekly award of his career and the first time a Tampa Bay player has earned the distinction this season. [Read more 🡒]
Bucs Defense Just Earned National Praise After Shutting Down Atlanta
The Buccaneers defense got a little national shine this week after its shutout of Atlanta landed two of its standouts on Pro Football Focus NFL Team of the Week. In Tampa Bays 16-0 win in Week 8, linebacker Alex Anzalone and cornerback Jacob Parrish were both recognized for the kind of disruptive, mistake-free football that can swing a game before the offense ever finds its rhythm.
Anzalone was especially active, piling up seven tackles and a pair of interceptions while grading out well in coverage, a notable milestone for a player who has spent plenty of time around the football but not always finished the play. Parrish also made his mark with seven tackles, an interception and two passes defended, helping the Buccaneers force four turnovers and turn a division game into one of their cleanest defensive outings of the season. [Read more 🡒]
Doug Williams Just Put A Buccaneers Legacy Debate Back In Focus
Doug Williams latest Hall of Fame nod has a way of pulling the Buccaneers back into one of the franchises most enduring legacy conversations. The first Black quarterback to win a Super Bowl has been nominated for the Pro Football Hall of Fames 2027 class, putting his name alongside other notable contributors such as Robert Kraft, Virginia McCaskey, Ralph Hay and John Wooten. For Tampa Bay fans, it is another reminder of how much of the leagues history still runs through Williams trailblazing career.
The nomination also arrives at a time when the Buccaneers are juggling more immediate football matters, with linebacker Alex Anzalone earning NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors and receiver Emeka Egbuka plus outside linebacker Yaya Diaby working back from injuries. Still, Williams case has a different kind of weight because it speaks to the broader story of the game, not just the week-to-week grind. The next step in that Hall of Fame process will determine how far this latest push goes, and for now it keeps a familiar Buccaneers figure in the center of a debate that has never really gone away. [Read more 🡒]