The NFC South has been a rollercoaster all season, and Week 14 didn’t just add another twist-it flipped the whole thing on its head.
Let’s start with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Heading into December, the road to a fifth straight division title looked pretty straightforward: beat the 2-10 Saints and 4-8 Falcons, and suddenly that Dec. 21 matchup with the Panthers turns into a “hat and t-shirt game”-the kind of game where a win means you’re printing division champ gear before Christmas. But that plan unraveled fast.
Tampa Bay had the first of those three crucial divisional games at home against New Orleans, and simply put, they didn’t get it done. A 24-20 loss not only stunned the home crowd but also cracked the door wide open in the NFC South race. Just like that, the Bucs’ margin for error disappeared.
And while Tampa was stumbling, the Panthers were on a bye-doing nothing but still gaining ground. That loss by the Bucs pulled Carolina even in the standings at 7-6, with four weeks left to settle the division.
So now, that “easy” path to clinching? Gone.
But the mission for Tampa Bay remains clear: win out, and the division is still theirs.
Here’s how it breaks down. If the Bucs can take care of business against Atlanta in Week 15 and then beat Carolina in Week 16, they’d head into a Week 17 showdown in Miami with a chance to clinch.
Even if the Panthers win their next two-against the Saints and Seahawks-the Bucs would own the tiebreaker thanks to a better record against common opponents. That’s the next tiebreaker after head-to-head, and it favors Tampa in this scenario.
So, if Tampa beats Carolina in Week 16 and then knocks off the Dolphins in Week 17, the Week 18 rematch with the Panthers becomes irrelevant to the division race. Even if Carolina gets revenge in that final game, both teams would split the season series 1-1, and Tampa’s edge in common opponents would carry them to the NFC South crown.
Meanwhile, the Falcons have officially bowed out of the playoff picture. After going into halftime tied 6-6 with Seattle, Atlanta collapsed in the second half, eventually losing 37-9.
That dropped them to 4-9 and eliminated them from postseason contention. Their Thursday night trip to Tampa now becomes more about pride than playoff position.
Here’s where the NFC South stands through Week 14:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-6 (2-1 in NFC South)
- Carolina Panthers: 7-6 (2-1 in NFC South)
- Atlanta Falcons: 4-9 (1-3 in NFC South)
- New Orleans Saints: 3-10 (2-2 in NFC South)
Remaining Schedules:
- Buccaneers: vs. Falcons, at Panthers, at Dolphins, vs.
Panthers
- Panthers: at Saints, vs.
Bucs, vs. Seahawks, at Bucs
So buckle up-the NFC South is far from settled.
Around the NFC: Playoff Picture Shuffling
While the South was busy reshuffling, the rest of the NFC playoff race saw some major movement.
The Packers picked up a huge 28-21 win over the Bears, vaulting Green Bay into the top spot in the NFC North and pushing Chicago into Wild Card territory-for now. The two teams still have a rematch coming, which could swing the division right back.
The Rams, meanwhile, flexed their offensive muscle in a 45-17 win over the Cardinals. That, combined with the Bears’ loss, moved Los Angeles back into the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Green Bay sits just behind them at No. 2, while the Eagles-still waiting on their Monday night matchup with the Chargers-hold down the No. 3 spot. Tampa, by virtue of leading the South, remains the No. 4 seed for now.
Seattle’s blowout win over Atlanta keeps them in the thick of the NFC West race, but the Rams still hold the head-to-head tiebreaker, so the Seahawks slot in at No. 5. That sets up a potential Wild Card Weekend rematch between Seattle and Tampa Bay if the standings hold.
The 49ers didn’t play in Week 14, but they still moved up to the No. 6 spot thanks to the Bears’ loss. San Francisco owns the tiebreaker over Chicago due to a better win percentage against NFC opponents. That drops the Bears to No. 7 with four games to go.
Just outside the playoff picture, the Lions are making noise. Their 44-30 win over the Cowboys on Thursday night was a statement, pushing Detroit to 8-5 and keeping them right in the hunt. For Dallas, that loss was a gut punch-they're now 6-6-1 and sitting behind both the Panthers and Lions in the chase.
NFC Standings Through Week 14 (Before Monday Night Football)
- Los Angeles Rams - 10-3
- Green Bay Packers - 9-3-1
- Philadelphia Eagles - 8-4 (still to play MNF at Chargers)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 7-6
- Seattle Seahawks - 10-3
- San Francisco 49ers - 9-4
- Chicago Bears - 9-4
In the Hunt:
- Detroit Lions - 8-5
- Carolina Panthers - 7-6
- Dallas Cowboys - 6-6-1
With four weeks left, the NFC playoff picture is as tight as ever. And in the South, it’s shaping up to be a two-team sprint between Tampa Bay and Carolina, with the final two weeks featuring a home-and-home that could decide everything.
The Bucs had their shot to make it easy-and missed. Now, they’ll have to earn it the hard way.