The Tampa Bay Buccaneers dropped a tough one in Week 16, falling 23-20 to the Carolina Panthers in a game that exposed some familiar issues - particularly on first down. While the final score suggests a close contest, the Bucs’ offense left a lot on the table, and the struggles on early downs played a big role in that outcome.
Let’s start with the numbers. Tampa Bay ran 26 plays on first down.
Take away Rachaad White’s explosive 39-yard burst, and the rest of those plays combined for just 56 yards - that’s a meager 2.24 yards per play. Not exactly a recipe for success in today’s NFL.
Baker Mayfield went 6-for-8 passing on first down, but those completions totaled just 19 yards. That’s not moving the chains - that’s treading water.
Head coach Todd Bowles addressed the issue on Monday, acknowledging the lack of production and pointing out that it wasn’t by design. “We’re always trying to get first downs,” he said.
“Some of the things they did kind of stymied some of the things we did, whether it was run or pass. At the same time, we’ve got to move the ball more efficiently on first down.”
The play-calling leaned heavily toward the run, with 18 of the 26 first-down plays being handoffs. That kind of imbalance invites defenses to load up the box, and it sure looked like Carolina was ready for it. The Panthers’ defense didn’t have to guess much - and that predictability hurt the Bucs.
When asked if he thought opposing defenses were starting to key in on those tendencies, Bowles gave a measured response: “Depends on what’s working. If they’re running the ball and it’s successful, then you keep at it. If it’s not successful, then it’s going to be difficult for you.”
And therein lies the problem. The Bucs weren’t successful on those early-down runs, but they kept going back to the well.
It’s a pattern that’s been hard to shake for this offense, stretching back to previous coordinators like Byron Leftwich and Dave Canales. Now under Josh Grizzard, the same issues are surfacing again - predictable play-calling, minimal gains on early downs, and a lack of in-game adjustments.
Some of the blame falls on personnel - the offensive line, particularly the interior, hasn’t consistently created the kind of push needed to make those first-down runs effective. That’s on the front office to fix.
But execution is on the players, and in this case, it wasn’t there. Despite racking up over 160 rushing yards as a team, the Bucs struggled to get the tough yards when they mattered most.
Bowles said the team had talked about wanting to get close to 30 rushing attempts - not as a hard target, but as part of a balanced approach that had worked for them in the past. “We didn’t have to get [to 30 rushing attempts],” he said.
“We wanted to. It was a formula for us that worked last year.
Last year we had 41 and 38 rushes against them. When you win the game, it’s different; when you lose the game… we did everything we wanted to do.
We controlled every category except for the turnover battle at the end and we lost the ball game.”
That’s a fair point - Mayfield’s turnover late in the game did swing the outcome. But it’s hard to ignore the contradiction.
Bowles has often emphasized that “last year is last year,” and yet here the game plan leaned heavily on what worked in 2024. The problem?
This isn’t the same team. The personnel is different, the offensive line hasn’t been as consistent, and the league has a full season of tape on what the Bucs want to do in certain situations.
At the end of the day, it wasn’t just the turnover that cost Tampa Bay this game. It was the inability to adapt.
When the run game wasn’t producing on first down, there wasn’t a shift in approach. The offense kept leaning on a strategy that wasn’t working, hoping it would eventually break through.
It didn’t.
Now, with the season winding down and playoff hopes hanging in the balance, the Bucs will need to take a long, hard look at their early-down approach. Because if they can’t find ways to be more efficient - and less predictable - on first down, they’re going to have a hard time closing out games, let alone chasing a postseason run.