Baker Mayfield is on track to return for Tampa Bay’s Week 7 matchup with Carolina, and the betting market has already spent the week reacting to that possibility.
The Buccaneers quarterback, who injured his right thumb in Week 3 against the Minnesota Vikings and missed the past three games, is officially listed as questionable after logging a full week of practice. Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles told reporters that Baker Mayfield “looks like he’s ready to go”, and he is now expected to start Sunday against the Panthers.
That expected return has already shown up in the line. The Buccaneers opened as three-point underdogs, and DraftKings Sportsbook quickly shifted the number to Panthers -3.5.
It has since moved back to Tampa Bay at +3, which lines up with the market’s belief that Mayfield would suit up. If backup Jalon Daniels had been set to start, the spread likely would have swung at least a point or two further toward Carolina.
Mayfield is also expected to wear a custom glove on his injured right hand, which makes his throwing hand one of the bigger storylines entering the game. Tampa Bay will need him to manage that cleanly, because the receiving group is already short-handed with No. 1 receiver Emeka Egbuka ruled out because of a concussion.
The Bucs are trying to dig out of a rough start. They are 1-5 overall, and they went 0-3 in the games Mayfield started before the thumb injury sidelined him. Even with their quarterback nearing a return, the numbers around Tampa Bay remain long: they are nearly 6/1 to make the playoffs and +12500 to win the Super Bowl in 2026.
From a production standpoint, Mayfield’s season line is modest but still gives Tampa Bay something to build on. He has completed 63.5 percent of his passes for 615 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in 2026, while also rushing 11 times for 65 yards and a score.
Sunday’s game also carries a clean divisional angle. A win would pull Tampa Bay to within one game of Carolina in the win column, and the Buccaneers would also own the head-to-head tiebreaker. For a team that has spent most of the season chasing ground, that’s the kind of result that can change the shape of the NFC South race in a hurry.
In Other News...
Bucs Face A Season Pressure Game In Carolina Shorthanded
Sundays trip to Bank of America Stadium carries a little extra weight for Tampa Bay, and it comes with a depleted roster on both sides. The Buccaneers head to Carolina on Oct. 25 with several players unavailable, adding another layer of difficulty to a division matchup that already has plenty riding on it. Fans who want to follow along can catch the game locally on FOX, with streaming options on NFL+ and NFL Sunday Ticket, while radio coverage is set for WXTB 97.9 FM and SiriusXM Channel 380.
The injury list is the bigger story for Tampa Bay, though, because it trims away some of the teams margin for error at a time when every AFC South-style slip in the division feels magnified. Carolina has its own absences to manage, but the Buccaneers challenge is figuring out how to get through a road game without some key pieces available, and how much it can still demand from a shorthanded group in a matchup that could shape the tone of the stretch ahead. [Read more 🡒]
Bucs Get The Weather Break They Needed In Carolina
A much-needed break is waiting for Tampa Bay in Charlotte, where the Buccaneers are set to play the Panthers under sunny skies and mild temperatures around 65 to 70 degrees. After dealing with some less cooperative conditions in recent weeks, the setting at Bank of America Stadium should be about as clean as it gets for an offense trying to get back on track, with no rain expected and only a moderate breeze in the forecast.
The wind, listed around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph, should not force any real changes to Tampa Bay's game plan, especially with Baker Mayfield on track to return after missing three games because of a thumb injury. It could still be enough to add a little difficulty on the edges of the operation, particularly for the kicking game and for any longer punts, but the bigger picture is simple: the Buccaneers should be able to lean on their passing attack without the weather getting in the way. [Read more 🡒]
Todd Bowles Is Facing A Buccaneers Problem That Feels Bigger Now
The Buccaneers have spent much of this season trapped in a familiar kind of frustration, the sort that keeps a coach answering the same questions after another narrow loss. Tampa Bay is 1-5 and sitting last in the NFC South, but the standings have not fully captured how messy the stretch has been. The team has also played half the season without Baker Mayfield, who went down with a dislocated thumb, leaving Todd Bowles to sort through a difficult opening half with little margin for error.
What makes the situation feel heavier is how thin the line has been between better and worse. Tampa Bay has been in a run of close games, and the Bucs have now won only three of their last 15, a mark that sits below what recent predecessors managed over the same stretch. Even with the division still within reach because of other teams' struggles, the larger issue is harder to ignore: the Buccaneers keep living on the edge, and the results have started to look like more than just bad breaks. [Read more 🡒]