Syracuse’s NCAA Tournament Hopes Take a Hit with Costly Loss to Boston College
CHESTNUT HILL, Mass. - Adrian Autry doesn’t want to hear about Quads. He’s not crunching NCAA NET rankings or filtering losses through committee logic. He’s focused on one thing: wins and losses.
“I know everyone is caught up in Quad 1, Quad 2,” Autry said after Saturday’s game. “I’m caught up in wins and losses and how my team is playing and how we get better.”
But in today’s college basketball world, where every game is graded on a curve by the NCAA selection committee, not all losses are created equal. And Saturday’s overtime loss to Boston College? That one stings - not just emotionally, but on the Orange’s postseason résumé.
Let’s call it what it is: a Quad 3 loss. And for a team like Syracuse, still fighting to return to March relevance, those are the kind of landmines that can derail a tournament push.
The Numbers Don’t Lie
Heading into Conte Forum, Syracuse was sitting at No. 58 in KenPom’s rankings. After falling to a Boston College team that entered the day 8-10 overall and just 1-4 in ACC play, the Orange dropped to No.
- That’s a 10-spot slide - in January, no less - and it’s the second time this season Syracuse has taken a hit like that.
The first? A home loss to Hofstra, another Quad 3 stumble that knocked them from No. 67 to No.
For context, when Syracuse lost to Houston - a Quad 1 matchup back in November - they actually improved in the rankings, climbing from No. 61 to No. 51. That’s the difference between a “good” loss and a “bad” one in the eyes of the committee.
Donnie Freeman, who poured in 19 points but also turned the ball over seven times, summed it up plainly: “It’s tough to lose games like this, especially when you’re supposed to win.”
The Margin for Error Shrinks
Now sitting at 12-6 overall and 3-2 in ACC play, Syracuse’s room to maneuver is getting tighter. The Orange are 11-2 in Quad 2, 3, and 4 games - a solid mark, but already one more loss than North Carolina had last season across those same tiers. And that UNC team barely squeaked into the tournament.
That’s the benchmark Autry’s squad is now chasing. To follow that path, Syracuse would likely need to run the table in its remaining Quad 2 and 3 games - six in total - and add at least one or two more Quad 1 wins to the mix. That’s a tall order, but the opportunities are there.
The Orange have seven Quad 1 games left on the schedule. They’ve already proven they can win one, knocking off Tennessee earlier this season - a victory that bumped their KenPom rating from No. 71 to No.
- That’s the kind of swing that can erase the damage of a bad loss.
But they’ll need more of those.
Big Games Ahead - and Big Questions for Autry
Autry knows the stakes. He’s 4-21 in Quad 1 games since taking over as head coach - a stat that looms large as Syracuse stares down a sixth straight season without an NCAA Tournament appearance. That kind of drought hasn’t happened in over 50 years for the Orange.
The good news? There’s still time.
The schedule is backloaded with chances to make a statement. But the flip side is just as true - if Syracuse keeps dropping games it’s supposed to win, or fails to capitalize on high-profile matchups, the pressure on Autry will only grow.
And at a program with the history and expectations of Syracuse, that pressure can turn into change.
The road to March is still open. But after Saturday’s stumble in Chestnut Hill, it just got a lot steeper.