The Syracuse Orange are sitting at 7-4, but the shine from that early-season upset over Tennessee has started to fade. After a tough 70-69 loss at home to Hofstra, it’s clear this team is still trying to find its identity heading into the heart of the season. With non-conference play winding down and ACC matchups looming, it’s time to take a closer look at where Syracuse stands - and what lies ahead if they want to be dancing come March.
NET Rankings: The Resume Snapshot
Right now, Syracuse is 96th in the NCAA’s NET rankings - 13th among ACC teams. That puts them ahead of just five conference opponents: Stanford, Florida State, Pitt, Boston College, and Georgia Tech.
The win over Tennessee still holds weight, now officially a Quad 1 victory with the Volunteers sitting at 24th in the NET. But the Hofstra loss?
That’s a Quad 3 blemish, and it stings even more considering Hofstra is currently ranked 88th - ahead of the Orange.
Here’s the breakdown of Syracuse’s resume by quadrant:
- Q1: 1-3
- Q2: 0-0
- Q3: 0-1
- Q4: 6-0
That’s not the kind of balance you want if you're hoping to impress the selection committee. The Orange have handled business against lower-tier opponents, but they’ve struggled to capitalize on opportunities against stronger teams. And with only one game against a top-10 ACC NET team in their first five conference matchups - a home tilt against Clemson - the chances to move the needle early in league play are limited.
KenPom: Defense Holding, Offense Slipping
KenPom has Syracuse at No. 80 nationally, again placing them 13th in the ACC. The numbers tell a tale of two units: the defense is doing its part, ranked 44th in adjusted efficiency, while the offense lags behind at 118th. That puts the Orange 15th in the conference in offensive efficiency - dead last - and 7th on the defensive side.
The strength of schedule isn’t doing them any favors either, currently ranked 214th overall. Their opponents’ average defensive ranking is 130th, which means Syracuse hasn’t exactly been tested by elite defenses - and yet, the offense still hasn’t found its rhythm. Within the ACC, that SOS ranks 11th, underscoring the need for stronger competition if this team wants to sharpen up before March.
Bart Torvik: A Slightly Rosier View
If there’s one metric giving Syracuse some breathing room, it’s Bart Torvik. The Orange sit at 67th in those rankings - their highest mark across the three major analytics models - and 12th in the ACC. Torvik’s system is a little more generous to the Syracuse offense, placing them 102nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 42nd in defense.
That Tennessee win carries more weight here too, with the Vols ranked 12th in Torvik’s model. It’s likely a big reason why Syracuse is hovering in the top 70, despite the offensive struggles. But even here, the numbers show a consistent theme: the defense is legit, but the offense is still searching for answers.
Resume-Building Ahead: Opportunities and Obstacles
The next two games - Northeastern and Stonehill - won’t move the needle. Both are low-tier matchups that fall squarely in Quad 4 territory. The real test begins when ACC play kicks off.
The Orange open league play with Clemson at home - a game that currently qualifies as a Quad 2 opportunity, though it could slide up to Quad 1 depending on how Clemson fares. The first true Quad 1 matchup in conference play doesn’t come until January 27th, when Syracuse travels to face NC State.
Here’s how the remaining ACC schedule breaks down by quadrant:
- Quad 1: 7 games (1 home, 6 away)
- Quad 2: 6 games (all home)
- Quad 3: 5 games (2 home, 3 away)
- Quad 4: None
That’s a tough road. Six of the seven Quad 1 games are on the road, including three in the final five games of the season.
Add a home game against North Carolina during that stretch, and the closing schedule is a gauntlet. If Syracuse is going to make a serious push for the NCAA Tournament, they’ll need to steal a few of those high-value road wins - and hope some of their home games sneak into Quad 1 territory by season’s end.
Bracketology: Outside Looking In
After sending just four teams to the tournament last year, the ACC is trending up - slightly. Most current bracket projections have seven or eight teams making the field.
ESPN’s latest update includes Miami, UNC, Duke, NC State, Virginia, Clemson, SMU, and Louisville. Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, and Wake Forest are hanging around the bubble.
Syracuse? Nowhere to be found.
Jon Rothstein’s bracket has the same group, minus NC State, who falls into the “first four out.” The Hofstra loss clearly did some damage to Syracuse’s national perception, and right now, they’re on the outside looking in.
If the Orange want to get back into the conversation, they’ll need to string together wins - and not just against the bottom of the conference. Quality wins are the currency of March, and Syracuse needs to start stacking them.
What’s Next
The Orange get a chance to reset this weekend with a home game against Northeastern. Tipoff is set for Saturday at 4 p.m. inside the Dome.
It’s a game they should win - and need to win - but it won’t do much for the resume. What matters is what comes after.
With conference play on the horizon, Syracuse has a chance to rewrite the narrative. The defense is there.
The effort is there. But if the offense doesn’t catch up - and soon - this team could find itself watching March Madness from home once again.