Syracuse vs. Clemson: What the Orange Need to Do to Start ACC Play on the Right Foot
As the calendar turns to January, the ACC once again looks like a gauntlet. Eleven teams from the conference sit inside the top 68 of the NCAA’s NET Rankings - second only to the Big Ten - and more than half of the league is tracking toward a spot in March Madness.
Syracuse, sitting at No. 89 in the latest NET update, isn’t one of them. Not yet, at least.
After an uneven nonconference stretch that featured some highs - like a statement win over then-No. 13 Tennessee - and some real lows - including a winless trip to Las Vegas and a head-scratching loss to Hofstra - the Orange open ACC play with a big one: a New Year’s Eve matchup at home against Clemson.
This is the kind of game that can set the tone for the rest of the season. If Syracuse wants to build a tournament résumé under first-year head coach Adrian Autry, it starts by flipping the script in conference play - and that begins with Clemson.
Let’s break down what to expect when Syracuse (9-4) hosts Clemson (10-3) at the JMA Wireless Dome.
The Series So Far
Clemson leads the all-time series 10-6, and recent history hasn’t been kind to Syracuse. The Orange have dropped four straight to the Tigers, including all three meetings since Autry took over. The last win came back in January 2022, during Jim Boeheim’s second-to-last season.
The most recent matchup - an 86-72 loss in January - was a tough one. Syracuse trailed by 19 at the break and couldn’t recover, despite a 25-point outburst from J.J.
Starling, who went 5-for-10 from deep. Clemson’s Chase Hunter (23 points) and Viktor Lakhin (16 points, 10 rebounds) carved up the Orange defense, and SU’s 14 turnovers didn’t help.
If Syracuse wants a different result this time, it’ll need more than just a big night from Starling - it’ll need a full team effort.
What the Numbers Say
According to KenPom, Syracuse has a 43% chance to win, with a projected final score of 72-70 in Clemson’s favor. That’s close - and it reflects just how evenly matched these teams can be on the right night.
Scouting Clemson
Clemson enters the game ranked No. 38 in the NET, and they’ve been one of the most consistent teams in the ACC under Brad Brownell. This year’s version is balanced on both ends - they rank 45th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (118.6) and 34th in defensive efficiency (99.7), per KenPom.
What stands out most? Experience.
Clemson is one of the oldest teams in the country. Their top five scorers are all upperclassmen, led by senior forward RJ Godfrey (11.3 PPG), senior guard Jestin Porter (10.5), and junior forward Carter Welling (10.5).
That maturity shows in the box score - they take care of the ball (13.6% turnover rate, 13th-best in the country), shoot well from the free-throw line (73.9%), and defend the perimeter with discipline (holding opponents to just 27.3% from three, eighth-best in D-I).
They’ve already faced some heavy hitters, including losses to ranked Alabama and BYU squads, and they notched a solid win over Georgia. But they’re not bulletproof - a November loss to Georgetown showed that this team can be vulnerable, especially if you catch them on an off night.
How Syracuse Can Pull the Upset
Let’s be real: Syracuse isn’t going to out-grind Clemson in the half court. Not without a major shift in offensive rhythm or a key personnel boost (more on that in a minute). What the Orange can do is shoot their way into this one.
The problem? They haven’t been doing much of that lately.
Syracuse is shooting just 30.8% from three this season - 280th in the country. That’s not going to cut it against a team like Clemson, especially one that’s tough to crack inside and won’t beat itself with turnovers.
If there’s a path to victory, it’s through the perimeter. Guys like Starling, Nate Kingz, Tyler Betsey, and Kiyan Anthony need to find their stroke early and often.
The Orange haven’t been getting those “kill shots” - 10-0 or 12-2 runs that flip the momentum - and part of that is due to the lack of consistent outside shooting. Against a disciplined team like Clemson, those scoring bursts are essential.
Another area that needs urgent attention: the free-throw line.
Stat to Watch: 15
That’s how many free throws Syracuse missed in its last game against Stonehill. Yes, it was a blowout win, but the Orange went just 14-of-29 from the stripe - a brutal 48%. On the season, they’re shooting just 59% from the line, the worst mark in Division I.
That’s not just a quirk - it’s a major liability. Close games in the ACC are often decided at the line, and right now, Syracuse is leaving way too many points on the table. If they’re going to survive the ACC grind and make a legitimate push for March, that number has to improve.
Player to Watch: Donnie Freeman, F, No. 5
This game could hinge on one player: Donnie Freeman.
The star freshman forward has missed the last nine games with a lower-body injury, and Syracuse has gone 5-4 without him. Freeman leads the team in scoring (17.8 PPG), but his impact goes beyond the numbers. He’s the focal point of the offense in the half court and a game-changer on defense.
According to EvanMiya, Freeman’s defensive player rating ranks in the 98th percentile nationally. That’s elite stuff. Without him, Syracuse has struggled to generate consistent offense in the paint and has lacked a true anchor on the defensive end.
If Freeman is back in the lineup against Clemson, it could change everything. His presence would force Clemson to defend the interior more honestly, opening up space for shooters and giving the Orange a much-needed scoring punch. He’s also the most highly-touted recruit of the Autry era - and if Syracuse is going to make a serious run at the NCAA Tournament, it’s hard to imagine doing it without him.
Final Thoughts
The ACC is no joke this year, and Syracuse is entering the fire with a lot to prove. Clemson is experienced, balanced, and battle-tested - but they’re not unbeatable. For the Orange, it starts with getting healthy, finding their shooting rhythm, and cleaning up the little things like free throws.
This New Year’s Eve clash is more than just a conference opener - it’s a litmus test. If Syracuse wants to be in the March conversation, it needs to start looking the part. And that means showing up, shooting well, and - if Freeman returns - leaning into the kind of two-way talent that can swing games.
The road to March starts now. Let’s see what the Orange have in store.