Syracuse Faces Another Road Test vs. No. 17 Virginia: What the Orange Need to Do to Pull Off the Upset
Syracuse is back on the road and back in the fire. After getting punched early and often in an 87-77 loss to No.
14 North Carolina - a game where the Orange trailed by as many as 32 - they now head to Charlottesville for a noon showdown with No. 17 Virginia.
That’s two ranked road games in five days for Adrian Autry’s squad, and the margin for error is getting razor-thin.
The Cavaliers are projected as a No. 5 seed in the latest NCAA Tournament bracketology and sit 17th in the NET Rankings. Syracuse, meanwhile, enters the matchup with a 13-10 overall record and a 4-6 mark in ACC play. It’s a must-win if the Orange want to keep their postseason hopes alive - and even then, they’ll need a near-perfect finish to make a serious case for March.
The Resume Check
This will be Syracuse’s seventh Quad 1 game of the season. So far, they’re just 1-5 in those matchups - and 4-22 overall in Quad 1 games since Autry took over.
Despite the loss in Chapel Hill, the Orange actually climbed one spot in KenPom rankings (now No. 69) and held steady at No. 71 in the NET. But according to advanced metrics site EvanMiya, Syracuse’s NCAA Tournament résumé still falls under the “Not Close” category.
Translation: the Orange need a signature win, and fast.
Series History
Virginia holds a 14-7 edge in the all-time series, but Syracuse got the better of the Cavaliers the last time out. That came at the end of the 2024-25 regular season, when SU rolled to an 84-70 win at the JMA Wireless Dome.
Eddie Lampkin Jr. dominated with a 25-point, 10-rebound double-double, while Lucas Taylor and Jyáre Davis chipped in 15 points apiece. Both teams were bounced in the second round of the ACC Tournament shortly after.
KenPom Projection
The analytics don’t love Syracuse’s chances in this one. KenPom gives the Orange just a 13% shot at the upset, with a projected final score of 80-67 in Virginia’s favor.
Scouting the Cavaliers
Virginia has gone through a transformation - and it’s paying off.
After longtime head coach Tony Bennett stunned the college basketball world by retiring just a month before the 2024-25 season, UVA turned to Ron Sanchez as an interim option. That season ended in a disappointing 15-17 record. But then came Ryan Odom, and with him, a total overhaul of the coaching staff and roster.
The result? A 19-3 record and a return to ACC contention.
Odom’s Cavaliers play with a familiar identity: slow pace, efficient offense, and suffocating defense. They rank 17th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency. They grind you down on both ends - opponents average 18.6 seconds per possession, one of the slowest tempos in the country.
Defensively, UVA is allowing just 68.3 points per game - second-best in the ACC. On offense, they’re putting up 83.3 points per game, which ranks sixth in the league.
That balance is no accident. The Cavaliers are elite on the glass, pulling down offensive boards at a 40.0% clip - third-best in the country.
They also contest shots well, ranking top 10 nationally in both opponents’ average 2-point shot distance (7.1 feet) and block rate (15.9%).
In short: they’re tough, they’re disciplined, and they don’t beat themselves.
How Syracuse Can Compete
If Syracuse wants to hang around - let alone pull off the upset - it starts with ball movement and perimeter shooting.
Against UNC, the Orange managed just seven assists, tied for a season low. That kind of stagnant offense won’t cut it against Virginia’s interior defense, which thrives on forcing isolation plays and clogging the paint. Syracuse shot 6-of-18 from deep in Chapel Hill, and they’ll need to be much better than that on Saturday.
The key is to stretch the floor. If shooters like Nate Kingz, Tyler Betsey, Naithan George, J.J.
Starling, or Donnie Freeman can find space and knock down shots early, it could loosen up Virginia’s defense and open driving lanes. But that’s easier said than done - UVA is holding opponents to just 30.3% from three, and Syracuse’s 33.7% clip from deep ranks 195th nationally.
So, it’s going to take a hot shooting night and disciplined offensive execution. No hero ball.
No settling. Just smart, patient basketball.
Stat to Know: 0
That’s how many players in Virginia’s current rotation had played a collegiate minute with each other before this season. Odom built this team from scratch - a mix of freshmen and transfers - and somehow, it’s all clicked.
San Francisco transfer Malik Thomas and Toledo transfer Sam Lewis are two of the Cavaliers’ top four scorers. Freshmen Thijs De Ridder and Chance Mallory lead the team in scoring, while BYU transfer Dallin Hall is their top playmaker. Another freshman, Johann Grunloh, leads the team in rebounding.
This is a brand-new group, but they’ve come together fast - and they’re playing like veterans.
Player to Watch: Chance Mallory, Guard, No. 2
He might not start, but Mallory is making a massive impact off the bench. The freshman guard leads Virginia in EvanMiya’s Bayesian Performance Rating, ranking sixth overall in the ACC - ahead of some big names from Duke, UNC, and NC State.
Mallory is averaging 10.5 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game in just 25 minutes. But the raw numbers don’t tell the full story.
He ranks in the 96th percentile for defense, 96th for court impact, and 98th for playmaking. He’s scored in double figures in four straight games, and he’s doing it with poise and efficiency.
If Syracuse wants to keep this one close, they’ll need to find a way to limit Mallory’s influence - not just in scoring, but in controlling the flow of the game.
The Bottom Line
Syracuse is staring at a steep hill - a road game against one of the ACC’s best, with its tournament hopes hanging by a thread. But this is the kind of game that can change the narrative.
Beat Virginia, and suddenly the Orange have a signature win. Lose, and the climb to March gets even steeper.
We’ll see which version of Syracuse shows up on Saturday.