After halting a four-game slide with a much-needed 86-72 win over Notre Dame, Syracuse heads into the teeth of its toughest stretch of the season - eight straight games against Quad 1 and 2 opponents. First up?
A trip to Chapel Hill to face a red-hot North Carolina squad that’s riding a three-game winning streak and currently sits at No. 25 in the NET rankings. That makes this one a Quad 1 opportunity for the Orange - and a big one at that.
Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN’s “Big Monday,” and while UNC is projected as a No. 6 seed in the latest bracketology, Syracuse is still trying to claw its way back into the March Madness conversation. A win here wouldn’t just move the needle - it might just bring the Orange back to life.
Syracuse's uphill climb - and a familiar face in the way
Let’s be real: Syracuse’s NCAA Tournament hopes are hanging by a thread. But the schedule down the stretch gives them chances - and this matchup with UNC is one of the biggest.
Head coach Adrian Autry doesn’t need style points right now. He needs wins.
Period.
Autry’s signature victory to date still stands as last year’s upset of then-No. 7 North Carolina at the Dome.
That February 2024 win was Syracuse’s first against a top-10 opponent since 2019. While the Tar Heels are ranked No. 16 this time around - not quite top-10 - the stakes remain sky-high.
For Autry, this could be a defining moment in a season that’s teetering between promise and pressure.
Series history
North Carolina leads the all-time series 18-7, and the last meeting was a heartbreaker for Syracuse. The Orange rallied from down 11 in the second half to pull within two in the final minute, only to fall short, 88-82. That loss marked SU’s 10th in conference play and helped seal their fate as the No. 14 seed in the ACC Tournament, where they eventually bowed out in the second round.
Eddie Lampkin Jr. was a force in that game, putting up 26 points and 11 boards, while J.J. Starling dropped 22 - 20 of them coming in the second half.
It was a gutsy effort, but not enough. This time around, they’ll need more than just a strong finish.
KenPom projection
The analytics aren’t exactly on Syracuse’s side. KenPom gives the Orange just an 18% chance to win, with a projected final score of 82-72 in favor of UNC. But games aren’t played on spreadsheets - and Syracuse has shown it can punch above its weight.
Scouting the Tar Heels
This isn’t the same UNC team that limped into the NCAA Tournament as an 11-seed a year ago and made a quick exit. Most of that roster is gone. Seth Trimble is the lone holdover, while the rest of the core either turned pro or hit the transfer portal.
In their place? A loaded freshman class and some savvy portal additions.
Headlining the newcomers is Caleb Wilson - a projected NBA lottery pick - and Luka Bogavac, another freshman with serious upside. Arizona transfer Henri Veesaar has emerged as one of the top bigs in the country, while Kyan Evans (from Colorado State) and Jarin Stevenson (Alabama) have settled into key supporting roles.
The result? A Tar Heels team that’s clicking on both ends of the floor.
Offensively, they’re ranked No. 18 in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency. They don’t shoot the lights out from deep (34.1% from three), but inside the arc, they’re lethal - hitting 58.5% of their twos, good for 21st nationally.
They’re also one of the most disciplined teams in the country with the ball, turning it over on just 13.6% of possessions - the 13th-lowest rate in Division I. While they don’t have a dominant floor general (Evans leads the team with just 3.0 assists per game), they share the ball well, with six players averaging at least two assists.
Defensively, UNC ranks 53rd in adjusted efficiency and thrives at forcing tough shots inside. Opponents shoot just 43.8% on two-pointers - fifth-best in the nation - and are often pushed into long twos, averaging 7.5 feet per shot attempt (fourth-longest nationally). That’s a credit to their length, discipline, and rim protection.
How Syracuse can pull the upset
Let’s talk matchups - and why this one could get tricky for Syracuse.
UNC’s two-headed monster in the frontcourt - Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar - is a problem. Wilson is putting up 20 points and 9.9 boards per game, while Veesaar is right there with 16.8 and 9.0. Both are 6-foot-10 or taller, and they bring a blend of skill, size, and versatility that’s rare in the college game.
That spells trouble for a Syracuse team whose tallest regulars - Donnie Freeman and William Kyle III - stand at 6-foot-9. The rebounding numbers paint a similar picture: UNC ranks fourth in the ACC at 40.0 boards per game; Syracuse sits 15th at 35.2. If the Orange can’t at least keep the rebounding margin close, they’ll be playing from behind all night.
But there’s a path - and it runs through the 3-point line.
Nate Kingz is coming off a career-high 28 points, including five triples, and he’s starting to look like the perimeter threat Syracuse hoped he’d become. If he stays hot, and if the Orange can get contributions from deep from guys like Tyler Betsey, J.J. Starling, Naithan George or Freeman, they’ll have a shot.
Spacing the floor, hitting timely threes, and making UNC’s bigs defend in space - that’s the blueprint. It’s not an easy one, but it’s their best bet.
Stat to know: 2
Only twice this season has someone other than Wilson or Veesaar led UNC in scoring. Once in a win over Radford (Bogavac had 19), and once in a loss to SMU (Trimble scored 22). That’s how consistent - and central - Wilson and Veesaar have been to this team’s success.
Defensively, they’re just as impactful. According to EvanMiya’s Defensive BPR metric, Veesaar ranks third in the ACC, and Wilson is right behind him at fourth. Limiting at least one of them is going to be essential - and easier said than done.
Player to watch: Caleb Wilson, F, No. 8
Wilson came into the season as the No. 8 recruit in the 2025 class, and he’s done nothing but exceed expectations. ESPN’s latest mock draft has him going No. 4 overall, and his 8.93 BPR ranks 20th nationally - third in the ACC behind only Duke’s Cameron Boozer and Patrick Ngongba.
He’s the real deal: a smooth, skilled forward with pro-level tools and instincts. If he gets going early, Syracuse could be in for a long night.
Bottom line
This is a tall task - literally and figuratively - for Syracuse. But it’s also a golden opportunity. A win in Chapel Hill wouldn’t just be a résumé boost; it could be the spark that reignites the Orange’s season.
They’ll need to shoot well, battle on the boards, and find a way to slow down one of the most dominant frontcourts in the country. But if March has taught us anything, it’s that college basketball doesn’t always follow the script.
Let’s see if the Orange can flip the narrative.