The atmosphere inside the JMA Wireless Dome on Wednesday night wasn’t just tense-it was boiling over. The frustration from Syracuse fans was loud and clear, and head coach Adrian Autry wasn’t hiding his emotions either. His postgame press conference included a rare, unfiltered outburst-fueled by a late-game breakdown on a missed box-out that sealed a 76-74 loss to Virginia Tech.
And you can’t blame him. Syracuse is now staring down the barrel of a third straight season without an NCAA Tournament appearance under Autry, and a fifth consecutive absence for the program overall.
The Orange faithful are growing restless, and the noise surrounding Autry’s future is starting to swell. Chants calling for change in the athletic department echoed through the Dome earlier this week.
That kind of unrest doesn’t happen unless the fan base feels like it’s slipping into irrelevance.
The Orange have now dropped two straight-first to Boston College, then to Virginia Tech-both games they were favored to win. And things don’t get any easier from here. Next up: a Saturday showdown with a tough Miami Hurricanes squad that, despite being on a two-game skid of its own, still sits near the top tier of the ACC.
Here’s a comprehensive look at what’s on the line and what to expect when Syracuse (12-7, 3-3 ACC) hosts Miami (15-4, 4-2 ACC) this weekend:
Series Snapshot
Syracuse holds a 20-13 edge in the all-time series.
Last Meeting
The last time these two matched up-February 11, 2025-Miami got the better of Syracuse in a 91-84 shootout down in Coral Gables. That game was one of SU’s worst defensive performances in ACC play last season, second only to the 101 points surrendered in an overtime loss to Virginia Tech.
Despite strong individual efforts-J.J. Starling dropped 25, Eddie Lampkin Jr. added 22-the Orange just couldn’t keep the Hurricanes in check.
Miami shot a blistering 50% from beyond the arc (10-for-20), and guard Matthew Cleveland torched Syracuse with a 32-point explosion on 10-of-13 shooting. It was the kind of night where even solid offensive output wasn’t enough to overcome defensive lapses.
What the Metrics Say
According to KenPom, Syracuse has a 44% chance of pulling out the win, with a projected final score of 76-74 in Miami’s favor. That’s as close to a toss-up as it gets, especially considering both teams are looking to snap losing streaks.
Scouting the Hurricanes
Miami enters this game ranked 39th in KenPom and 37th in the NET, which places them firmly in the NCAA Tournament conversation. Despite recent losses to Clemson and Florida State, this is still one of the ACC’s most complete teams when clicking.
Offensively, the Hurricanes rank 63rd in adjusted efficiency. Defensively, they’re even better-32nd nationally.
That balance is what makes them dangerous. They don’t beat themselves, either.
They’re hitting nearly 60% of their shots from inside the arc (59.4%, 16th in the country), and they force turnovers on 20% of opponents’ possessions-good for 40th in Division I.
The scoring load is spread among four key contributors:
- Malik Reneau (19.6 PPG): The 6-foot-9 senior forward is Miami’s go-to guy. A transfer from Indiana, Reneau is a force inside but can stretch the floor just enough to keep defenses honest.
He’s shooting 33.3% from deep on 45 attempts and ranks seventh in the ACC in scoring. His 7.74 Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR) is one of the highest in the country, underscoring his all-around impact.
- Tre Donaldson (16.0 PPG): The senior guard is the engine of the offense. His 6.4 assists per game are second-best in the ACC, and his ability to orchestrate the offense while also being a scoring threat makes him a matchup nightmare.
- Shelton Henderson (14.3 PPG): A steady contributor who can score at all three levels.
- Tru Washington (11.7 PPG): A defensive pest with a team-high 33 steals, Washington is a key piece on both ends of the floor.
How Syracuse Can Win
Let’s start with the obvious: Donnie Freeman has to be better.
The freshman forward had one of his roughest nights against Virginia Tech, shooting just 3-for-14 from the field. When Freeman is rolling, Syracuse is a different team.
But when he’s off, the margin for error shrinks dramatically.
More broadly, Syracuse needs to clean up the fundamentals. That means rebounding, hitting free throws, and limiting turnovers-especially in crunch time. Those were the areas that doomed them against VT, and Autry didn’t mince words postgame.
“We get another chance, and we walk under the f-ing basketball, under the rim and we don’t get the rebound,” Autry said, referring to a late-game possession where Hokies forward Tobi Lawal grabbed a critical offensive board that iced the game.
That kind of breakdown has become too common this season. Against high-level opponents, it's the little things-boxing out, rotating on defense, making the extra pass-that separate wins from losses. If Syracuse wants to get back on track, it has to start doing the little things right, and it has to do them consistently for 40 minutes.
Stat to Watch: 70
Here’s a number to circle: 70.
That’s the threshold that seems to define Miami’s success. The Hurricanes are 0-4 this season when held under 70 points, including their last two conference losses.
When they hit that number or higher, they win.
For Syracuse, that means defense has to be the calling card on Saturday. The Orange haven’t held an opponent under 70 points since New Year’s Eve against Clemson, and they’ve allowed an average of 77.4 points over their last five games. That won’t cut it against a Miami team that thrives when it gets into a rhythm.
Player to Watch: Tre Donaldson (No. 3, Guard)
Donaldson is the straw that stirs Miami’s drink. The 6-foot-3 Michigan transfer is having a breakout senior season, and his ability to control the tempo, distribute the ball, and score when needed makes him Miami’s most valuable offensive piece.
His 5.45 Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating (OBPR) backs that up.
Expect either J.J. Starling or Naithan George to draw the primary defensive assignment. That matchup could go a long way in determining the outcome.
Bottom Line: Syracuse is in a critical stretch of its season. The pressure is mounting, and the margin for error is razor-thin. Saturday’s game against Miami isn’t just another ACC battle-it’s a chance to shift the narrative, restore some confidence, and show that this team can handle adversity.
But to do that, the Orange will need more than just talent. They’ll need toughness, discipline, and a commitment to doing the little things right. Because against a team like Miami, one blown box-out or careless turnover might be the difference between a win that sparks a turnaround-and a loss that deepens the hole.