Syracuse Preps for SMU Test Amid Tumultuous Week and March Madness Hopes
In a week that already felt like a turning point for Syracuse basketball, the Orange now face a crucial challenge with major implications. With Director of Athletics John Wildhack announcing his upcoming retirement, the future of the program - and head coach Adrian Autry’s place in it - suddenly feels a little less certain. But for now, the focus shifts back to the court, where Syracuse is still fighting to keep its postseason dreams alive.
Wednesday’s win over Cal, despite multiple power outages that interrupted the game, was a much-needed sigh of relief for a team that’s been searching for consistency. The Orange haven’t been able to string together wins in over a month, and their 1-6 record in Quad 1 games leaves them with serious work to do if they want to hear their name called on Selection Sunday. That’s what makes Saturday’s matchup against SMU such a critical opportunity.
The Mustangs are no pushover. They’ve already taken down North Carolina and Texas A&M this season and are currently projected as a 9-seed in the NCAA Tournament. A win over a team with that kind of résumé would be Syracuse’s second-best of the year - trailing only their upset over Tennessee - and could inject some much-needed life into their March Madness campaign.
A Brief History: SMU vs. Syracuse
This isn’t the first time these two programs have crossed paths - but it hasn’t gone Syracuse’s way. The Orange are 0-2 all-time against SMU, including a painful 73-53 loss in the ACC Tournament’s second round last season.
That game unraveled quickly in the second half after a competitive first 20 minutes. J.J.
Starling led Syracuse with 16 points, but the team struggled from deep (6-for-22), and Eddie Lampkin Jr. was effectively neutralized after a strong showing the night before against Florida State.
That loss capped one of the worst seasons in recent memory for Syracuse, and it only amplified the pressure on Autry heading into this year.
KenPom Outlook
According to KenPom, Syracuse has a 40% chance of pulling off the win, with a projected final score of 81-78 in favor of SMU. It’s a tight matchup, but the Orange will need to bring their best on both ends of the floor to flip that projection.
Scouting the Mustangs
Under head coach Andy Enfield, SMU is trending up in his second season at the helm. After reaching the NIT Second Round last year, the Mustangs are on pace for their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2016-17 - and they’re not sneaking in. This team is legit.
Leading the charge is Boopie Miller, who’s taken a significant leap in his second year with the program. After losing key contributors Chuck Harris and Matt Cross to graduation, SMU reloaded around Miller.
The Mustangs added Jaron Pierre Jr. from Jacksonville State, and B.J. Edwards has grown into a steady presence in the backcourt.
Corey Washington, a transfer from Wichita State, has added versatility, while Samet Yiğitoğlu anchors the paint in his sophomore year.
Statistically, the Mustangs are a force on offense. They rank 15th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (124.0) and are shooting a blistering 56.4% in effective field goal percentage - good for 26th in the country.
Miller’s individual numbers are just as eye-popping. According to EvanMiya’s Bayesian Performance Rating, his 6.16 OBPR ranks 20th in all of college basketball.
Defensively, though, SMU has been more vulnerable. Despite leading the ACC in scoring offense (86.5 PPG), they’re allowing 77.6 points per game - 16th in the conference. That defensive gap is something Syracuse must exploit.
How Syracuse Can Pull Off the Upset
For Syracuse to walk away with a win, it starts with perimeter defense. SMU ranks 22nd nationally in three-point shooting at 37.9%. If the Orange can limit their looks from deep and force Miller and company to drive into traffic, they’ll have a fighting chance.
Offensively, Syracuse needs to capitalize on SMU’s defensive lapses. While the Orange haven’t been lighting it up lately, the Mustangs have allowed 75+ points in seven of their 12 ACC games. If Syracuse can find any rhythm - particularly from players like Judah Mintz and Chris Bell - they can keep pace.
Donnie Freeman’s recent struggles are a concern, but a bounce-back performance from him could be the difference between staying close and pulling away. The Orange don’t need to be perfect offensively - just competent enough to take advantage of a leaky SMU defense.
Stat to Know: 32
It’s been 32 days since Syracuse last won back-to-back games. That stretch included a promising three-game win streak in early January over Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, and Florida State, which briefly pushed the Orange to 3-1 in ACC play. But since then, it’s been a rocky road - with losses in six of their last eight.
A win Saturday would not only give Syracuse its first winning streak in over a month, but it would also be a major résumé boost heading into a tough stretch that includes a showdown with Duke.
Player to Watch: Boopie Miller, G, No. 2
Miller is the engine that drives SMU’s offense. The fifth-year guard from Chicago is averaging 19.2 points per game - sixth in the conference - and he’s doing it with remarkable efficiency. After averaging 13.2 points last season, he’s taken his game to another level this year.
His passing has improved too, with his assists per game jumping from 5.5 to 6.8. But the biggest leap has come from beyond the arc.
Miller is now hitting 41% of his threes on 4.6 attempts per game - a big jump from the 34.1% he shot last season. Syracuse’s guards will have their hands full, and if Miller gets going early, it could be a long afternoon.
Final Thought
Saturday’s game isn’t just another ACC matchup - it’s a gut check for a Syracuse team still searching for its identity. With postseason hopes hanging by a thread, every game matters. And against a dangerous SMU squad, the Orange have a chance to make a statement.
Win, and they head into Duke with momentum and belief. Lose, and the climb to March gets even steeper.