Syracuse is heating up at just the right time-and not a moment too soon. After a stretch of inconsistent play, the Orange have strung together back-to-back wins for the first time in a month, and both came against quality opponents.
First, they took down Cal, a team squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Then they followed it up with a strong performance against SMU, currently projected as a No. 9 seed in March Madness.
Make no mistake: the road to the NCAA Tournament is still steep for Syracuse. The Orange haven’t danced in March since 2019, and with a NET ranking of 69, they’re still on the outside looking in.
But the next stretch offers opportunity. Four straight Quad 1 games loom, and if Syracuse wants to make a late push, it starts now.
That push gets its toughest test yet on Monday night in Durham, North Carolina. The Orange head to Cameron Indoor Stadium to face No. 4 Duke-one of the hottest teams in college basketball and a perennial powerhouse once again eyeing a top seed in the NCAA Tournament and an ACC title.
The History: Duke Dominates the Series
This will be the 24th meeting between the programs, and Duke holds a commanding 17-6 lead in the all-time series. The last time these two met, it wasn’t close.
On February 5, 2025, then-No. 2 Duke rolled to an 83-54 win over Syracuse, extending its win streak to 16 games.
The Blue Devils led by 14 at halftime and never looked back, even with future No. 1 NBA Draft pick Cooper Flagg scoring just 11 points.
Duke’s depth was on full display in that one-Tyrese Proctor hit four threes en route to 16 points, and five Blue Devils scored in double figures. Syracuse got 12 points apiece from J.J.
Starling and Jyare Davis, but it wasn’t nearly enough to keep the game competitive. That loss was part of a 10-game losing streak against Duke, dating back to Syracuse’s last win over the Blue Devils in January 2019.
KenPom Projection: Not Looking Good for the Orange
Analytics aren’t giving Syracuse much of a shot in this one. KenPom gives the Orange just a 4% chance to win, with a projected final score of 81-62 in favor of Duke. That’s a steep hill to climb, especially on the road in one of the most intimidating environments in college basketball.
Scouting the Blue Devils: Reloaded, Not Rebuilding
Despite losing a slew of NBA talent-Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel, Khaman Maluach, Tyrese Proctor, and Sion James-Duke hasn’t missed a beat under Jon Scheyer. Now in his fourth season at the helm, Scheyer has kept the Blue Devils not just relevant, but dominant.
Duke is 23-2 overall and 12-1 in ACC play, with its only losses coming by a combined four points to Texas Tech and North Carolina. They’re fresh off a 13-point win over No. 20 Clemson, and they’ve looked every bit the part of a Final Four contender.
The engine behind this year’s Duke team? Freshman phenom Cameron Boozer.
The 6-foot-9, 250-pound forward is leading the ACC in both scoring (22.8 points per game) and rebounding (9.9 per game). He’s also shooting nearly 39% from deep and ranks No. 1 nationally in Bayesian Performance Rating, according to EvanMiya CBB Analytics.
Boozer has scored at least 14 points in every game this season. He’s a matchup nightmare-strong enough to bully defenders inside, skilled enough to stretch the floor, and smart enough to make the right play.
Joining Boozer is his twin brother Cayden, a guard who’s been giving Duke solid minutes off the bench, including a 12-point outing against Clemson. Sophomore Isaiah Evans has stepped into a starring role in the backcourt, averaging 14.4 points per game.
Caleb Foster pairs with him to form a balanced, efficient guard duo. Patrick Ngongba II anchors the frontcourt, and former Syracuse forward Maliq Brown adds defensive toughness off the bench.
Statistically, Duke is elite on both ends. Offensively, they rank 10th in adjusted efficiency (125.2) and 15th in effective field goal percentage (57.2%).
On defense, they’re even better-second in adjusted efficiency (89.2) and 12th in effective field goal percentage allowed (46%). The one area where they’re not overwhelming?
The three-point line. Duke ranks 13th in the ACC and 173rd nationally in three-point percentage at 34.1%.
But when you dominate inside and defend like they do, that’s hardly a fatal flaw.
How Syracuse Can Pull Off the Upset
Let’s be real: this would be a monumental upset. Syracuse hasn’t beaten Duke in over five years and has only won twice in program history at Cameron Indoor.
The average margin of defeat during this 10-game losing streak? Seventeen points.
The last three meetings? All 20-point losses.
So, what would it take?
First, Syracuse has to shoot the lights out from deep. Duke’s not a high-volume three-point team, so if the Orange can get hot from beyond the arc and create some separation, they might keep it close into the second half. That’s easier said than done, but it’s the kind of variance you need to pull off an upset like this.
Second, Syracuse needs to bring the kind of defensive intensity it showed in its win over Houston earlier this season. That means controlling the glass, rotating effectively on the perimeter, and limiting Boozer’s touches-not stopping him entirely (good luck with that), but making him work for every bucket.
And finally, there’s the human element. Duke has a massive game against Michigan coming up.
Could they overlook Syracuse? Maybe.
Could the Orange catch them flat-footed? Possibly.
But Syracuse will need to play near-perfect basketball and hope Duke isn’t at its sharpest.
Player to Watch: Cameron Boozer, Forward, No. 12
There’s no mystery here. Boozer is the real deal.
The son of former NBA All-Star Carlos Boozer, Cameron has lived up to every bit of the hype in his freshman year. He’s big, skilled, and relentless-a future lottery pick who’s already playing like a pro.
If Syracuse can’t find a way to slow him down, it could be another long night in Durham.
Final Thought
Momentum is a funny thing in college basketball. Syracuse has it-for now.
But to keep it going, they’ll have to do something they haven’t done in years: beat Duke. On the road.
In February. Against one of the best teams in the country.
It’s a tall order. But that’s what makes college hoops so fun. You never know when the next upset is coming.