Syracuse’s Offense Under the Microscope: Numbers Tell a Different Story Than Autry’s Optimism
After Syracuse’s 76-62 win over Division II Mercyhurst, head coach Adrian Autry stood at the podium and declared there was “nothing wrong” with his team’s offense. On paper, the Orange had just won by double digits. But dig a little deeper, and the numbers tell a more complicated story - one that suggests Syracuse’s offense is still very much a work in progress.
Let’s start with the basics. Syracuse turned the ball over 16 times against Mercyhurst.
That’s not just a sloppy stat - those giveaways directly led to 23 points for the Lakers. And while a win is a win, that kind of carelessness with the ball against a lower-division opponent raises eyebrows, especially for a team with bigger aspirations.
The Orange also shot just 23.5% from beyond the arc against a Mercyhurst defense that ranks 235th nationally in 3-point defense. That’s not the kind of shooting performance that inspires confidence, particularly when perimeter shooting has been a season-long issue.
Even at the free throw line - where Syracuse has struggled mightily - the team showed modest improvement, hitting 12-of-16. That small boost was enough to move them out of dead last nationally in free throw percentage… to second-to-last. Progress, sure, but still a long way from where a championship-caliber team needs to be.
The ACC Numbers: A Reality Check
Zoom out to the ACC landscape, and the offensive concerns become even more glaring. Among the 18 ACC teams, Syracuse ranks:
- 17th in scoring (72.9 points per game), despite playing at a quicker pace than last season.
- 12th in field goal percentage (46.3%).
- 17th in 3-point percentage (30%).
- Tied for 17th in 3-pointers made per game (6.5).
- Dead last in free throw percentage (58%).
- 13th in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.22).
- 14th in assists per game (13.64).
These aren’t just numbers - they’re red flags. They paint the picture of a team that struggles to generate consistent offense, especially in the halfcourt. And while Autry may not be sounding the alarm publicly, the data suggests there’s plenty of room for concern.
National Efficiency Metrics Back It Up
Two of the most respected analytics platforms in college basketball - KenPom and Bart Torvik - echo the same message. Syracuse ranks 118th in offensive efficiency on KenPom and 102nd on Torvik.
These aren’t arbitrary rankings. The NCAA uses both when evaluating teams for postseason play.
And right now, Syracuse’s offense is squarely in the middle of the national pack - not the kind of profile that screams tournament lock, let alone contender.
Frontcourt Leads the Way - But Help Is Limited
Interestingly, Syracuse’s most efficient offensive players right now are both frontcourt guys - and one of them has barely played.
William Kyle is putting together a quietly dominant stretch. He’s shooting a blistering 73.4% from the field, including a jaw-dropping 25-of-26 on dunk attempts.
According to Torvik’s data, he’s converting 76.3% of his “close 2s.” He’s also getting to the free throw line more than anyone on the roster outside of Donnie Freeman - and after a rough start, he’s made 10 of his last 15 attempts.
Donnie Freeman, who’s been sidelined since Nov. 18 with an injury, was averaging nearly 18 points per game before going down. He’s been efficient inside the arc, hitting 73.3% on close 2s and 42.9% on long 2s.
He’s also the team’s second-best free throw shooter (77.9%), trailing only Naithan George (81%). Freeman’s absence has been felt, especially with the offense sputtering in key stretches.
Freshman Sadiq White has filled in admirably, but at this stage of his development, he doesn’t yet offer Freeman’s scoring versatility.
Backcourt Still Searching for Rhythm
The backcourt has been inconsistent, and that’s putting it mildly.
JJ Starling is averaging 10.6 points per game - a number that’s slightly skewed by the zero he posted after an early injury in the season opener. He’s not getting to the line as often as he did last year and continues to struggle there when he does. But there’s a silver lining: he’s shooting a career-best 35.7% from three, which leads the team.
Naithan George, meanwhile, is averaging 8.3 points per game. Autry made it clear the staff didn’t bring George in to score 18 or 20 a night - and no one’s expecting that.
But with defenses sagging off him and daring him to shoot, he’s going to need to become more assertive offensively. Over his last seven games, George has nearly as many turnovers (26) as assists (28), and that assist-to-turnover ratio is something to monitor closely.
Young Wings Still Developing
Freshmen Nate Kingz, Kiyan Anthony, and Tyler Betsey have each had flashes, but consistency remains elusive. Among the trio, Betsey leads in 3-point shooting at 34.6%, while Kingz has been the most reliable from the free throw line at 55.6%. These are the kinds of growing pains you expect from young wings - but they also highlight the need for more dependable production from the veterans.
The Schedule Hasn’t Helped, But the Standard Remains High
Autry was quick to point out that Syracuse has faced some elite defenses during its toughest stretch of the season - including Houston, Kansas, Iowa State, and Tennessee. That’s fair. Those are teams built to make life miserable for opposing offenses.
But in the same postgame presser, Autry also said Syracuse is “trying to compete for championships.” And that’s the key.
If you’re aiming for titles - or even just to make noise in March - you have to be able to score against the best. That means finding answers in the halfcourt, improving at the line, and getting more out of a backcourt that’s still trying to find its identity.
Right now, the Orange are defending well enough to stay in games. But if they want to start winning the big ones, the offense has to catch up - and fast.
The numbers don’t lie. There’s work to be done.